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Tatran Bohunice v Znojmo

Tatran Bohunice

2–1Full time

Znojmo

4. liga - Divizie D · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Tatran Bohunice 2–1 Znojmo TATRAN BOHUNICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tatran Bohunice win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.428

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tatran Bohunice win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tatran Bohunice 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Tatran Bohunice v Znojmo
26′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Znojmo
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
43′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Znojmo
46′SECOND HALF Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Znojmo
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
64′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tatran Bohunice 2–0 Znojmo
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
83′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Tatran Bohunice
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Tatran Bohunice win over 99%)
84′We said Tatran Bohunice at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Tatran Bohunice 2–1 Znojmo
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Tatran Bohunice win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 81%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Tatran Bohunice
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Znojmo
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 4% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Tatran Bohunice win 97%)
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Tatran Bohunice 2–1 Znojmo
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Tatran Bohunice win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Tatran Bohunice win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 92%)
FTFULL TIME Tatran Bohunice 2–1 Znojmo
FTTatran Bohunice 2–1 Znojmo · Tatran Bohunice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tatran Bohunice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tatran Bohunice 47%, draw 25%, Znojmo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Tatran Bohunice v ZnojmoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tatran Bohunice win47%

Draw25%

Znojmo win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup D · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tatran Bohunice

Znojmo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tatran Bohunice	11	+13	21
7	Znojmo	11	+6	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatran bohunice winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Tatran Bohunice a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tatran Bohunice v Znojmo~~1.67 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 18~~3 v 7

~~The market · Tatran Bohunice win~~47% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tatran Bohunice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tatran Bohunice win	47%	47%	0
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Znojmo win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Tatran Bohunice or draw	72%	71%	+1
Tatran Bohunice clean sheet	29%	–	–
Znojmo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 6.4 4.3 1 8.7 11.6 6.9 2.9 2 7.5 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.2 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tatran Bohunice down, Znojmo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,172 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tatran Bohunice at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Znojmo away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Tatran Bohunice, 1.25 for Znojmo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZNO 2–2 TAT · TAT 1–0 ZNO · ZNO 4–0 TAT · TAT 2–1 ZNO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 12 Sept

TATRAN BOHUNICE

WWLLWD3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

ZNOJMO

WLDLLW2–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kuřim	11	+27	22
2	Sparta Brno	11	+8	22
3	Tatran Bohunice	11	+13	21
4	Velká Bíteš	11	+6	21
5	Havlíčkův Brod	11	+7	20
6	FS Třebíč	11	−2	20
7	Znojmo	11	+6	18
8	Sokol Tasovice	11	+7	17
9	Pelhřimov	11	+3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	11	+3	14
11	Humpolec	11	−5	10
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	11	−7	10
13	Chotebor	11	−11	10
14	Velké Meziříčí	11	−14	10
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	−3	9
16	Bedrichov	11	−38	2