Home › Football › 4. liga - Divizie D › Tatran Bohunice v Žďár nad Sázavou

Tatran Bohunice v Žďár nad Sázavou

Tatran Bohunice

1–0Full time

Žďár nad Sázavou

4. liga - Divizie D · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Žďár nad Sázavou TATRAN BOHUNICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tatran Bohunice win~~64%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.195

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tatran Bohunice win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tatran Bohunice 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Tatran Bohunice v Žďár nad Sázavou
45′HALF-TIME Tatran Bohunice 0–0 Žďár nad Sázavou
46′SECOND HALF Tatran Bohunice 0–0 Žďár nad Sázavou
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Žďár nad Sázavou
FTFULL TIME Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Žďár nad Sázavou
FTTatran Bohunice 1–0 Žďár nad Sázavou · Tatran Bohunice win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tatran Bohunice win64%

Draw21%

Žďár nad Sázavou win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatran bohunice winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

64% The market68%

Us64%

~~Market~~68%

We make Tatran Bohunice a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tatran bohunice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tatran Bohunice win	64%	68%	−4
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Žďár nad Sázavou win	15%	13%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Tatran Bohunice or draw	85%	87%	−2
Tatran Bohunice clean sheet	41%	–	–
Žďár nad Sázavou clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 4.2 2.1 1 10.2 9.7 4.2 2 10.8 9.4 4.3 3 7.6 6.5 2.9 4 4.1 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tatran Bohunice down, Žďár nad Sázavou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,156 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tatran Bohunice at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Žďár nad Sázavou away: 1.83 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Tatran Bohunice, 0.90 for Žďár nad Sázavou. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TAT 2–0 ZDA · ZDA 0–1 TAT · ZDA 3–2 TAT · TAT 2–2 ZDA

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D

TATRAN BOHUNICE

DWWWLL3–3 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

ŽĎÁR NAD SÁZAVOU

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Velká Bíteš	9	+5	18
2	Tatran Bohunice	9	+12	17
3	Kuřim	9	+12	16
4	Havlíčkův Brod	9	+5	16
5	Sparta Brno	9	+1	16
6	FS Třebíč	9	−4	16
7	Znojmo	9	+7	15
8	Pelhřimov	9	+8	14
9	Sokol Tasovice	9	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	9	−1	10
11	Humpolec	9	−2	9
12	Chotebor	9	−8	9
13	Velké Meziříčí	9	−10	9
14	Žďár nad Sázavou	9	−2	8
15	Ždírec nad Doubravou	9	−7	8
16	Bedrichov	9	−21	2