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Sparta Brno v Velké Meziříčí

Sparta Brno

5–1Full time

Velké Meziříčí

4. liga - Divizie D · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Sparta Brno 5–1 Velké Meziříčí SPARTA BRNO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Brno win~~59%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.258

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.201

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Brno win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sparta Brno was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–22
1′KICK-OFF Sparta Brno v Velké Meziříčí
21′We published Sparta Brno at 59%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Sparta Brno 1–0 Velké Meziříčí
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
29′We published Sparta Brno at 59%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sparta Brno 2–0 Velké Meziříčí
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 92% now
34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Sparta Brno
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sparta Brno 2–0 Velké Meziříčí
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 92% now
37′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–2
38′We published Sparta Brno at 59%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sparta Brno 3–0 Velké Meziříčí
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Sparta Brno 3–0 Velké Meziříčí
46′We said Sparta Brno at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–31–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46′SECOND HALF Sparta Brno 3–0 Velké Meziříčí
50′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sparta Brno 3–1 Velké Meziříčí
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Sparta Brno
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Velké Meziříčí
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sparta Brno 3–1 Velké Meziříčí
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
53′We said Sparta Brno at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–34–21
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Sparta Brno
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Velké Meziříčí
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 44% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sparta Brno 3–1 Velké Meziříčí
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 43–36–21
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Sparta Brno
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Velké Meziříčí
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 41% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Sparta Brno 3–1 Velké Meziříčí
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Sparta Brno
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Velké Meziříčí
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 40% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sparta Brno 3–1 Velké Meziříčí
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
62′We said Sparta Brno at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
70′We said Sparta Brno at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–50–17
74′We said Sparta Brno at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–16
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Sparta Brno win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
79′We published Sparta Brno at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sparta Brno 4–1 Velké Meziříčí
91′6 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Sparta Brno 5–1 Velké Meziříčí
FTFULL TIME Sparta Brno 5–1 Velké Meziříčí
FTSparta Brno 5–1 Velké Meziříčí · Sparta Brno win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Brno are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Brno 59%, draw 19%, Velké Meziříčí 22%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Brno v Velké MeziříčíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Brno win59%

Draw19%

Velké Meziříčí win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Brno

Velké Meziříčí

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sparta Brno	10	+4	19
11	Velké Meziříčí	10	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta brno winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

59% The market64%

Us59%

~~Market~~64%

We make Sparta Brno a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Brno v Velké Meziříčí~~2.45 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 10~~5 v 11

~~The market · Sparta Brno win~~64% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Brno win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Brno win	59%	64%	−5
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Velké Meziříčí win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	74%	66%	+8
Both teams to score	69%	62%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	90%	85%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	54%	48%	+6
Sparta Brno or draw	78%	84%	−6
Sparta Brno clean sheet	24%	–	–
Velké Meziříčí clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.6 2.8 2.3 1 4.8 7.6 5.2 2.5 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 4.9 6.8 4.9 2.4 4 3.0 4.2 3.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Brno down, Velké Meziříčí across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,164 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Brno at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Velké Meziříčí away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Sparta Brno, 1.46 for Velké Meziříčí. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VEL 2–1 SPA · SPA 1–2 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTA BRNO

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

VELKÉ MEZIŘÍČÍ

WLLWLD3–2 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Velká Bíteš	10	+8	21
2	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
3	Kuřim	10	+25	19
4	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
5	Sparta Brno	10	+4	19
6	Sokol Tasovice	10	+8	17
7	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
8	Znojmo	10	+5	15
9	Pelhřimov	10	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	10	−1	11
11	Velké Meziříčí	10	−10	10
12	Humpolec	10	−5	9
13	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
14	Chotebor	10	−11	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	10	−34	2