Pelhřimov v Žďár nad Sázavou prediction · 4. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PelhřimovDrawŽďár nad Sázavou

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pelhřimov 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pelhřimov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pelhřimov 52%, draw 21%, Žďár nad Sázavou 26%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Pelhřimov v Žďár nad SázavouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pelhřimov win52%

Draw21%

Žďár nad Sázavou win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pelhřimov

Žďár nad Sázavou

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Pelhřimov	11	+3	14
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pelhřimov winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Pelhřimov a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pelhřimov v Žďár nad Sázavou~~2.15 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pelhřimov win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Žďár nad Sázavou win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Pelhřimov or draw	74%	–	–
Pelhřimov clean sheet	24%	–	–
Žďár nad Sázavou clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.4 3.8 3.1 1 5.6 8.9 6.2 3.0 2 6.2 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 4.4 6.2 4.5 2.2 4 2.4 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pelhřimov down, Žďár nad Sázavou across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,172 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pelhřimov at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Žďár nad Sázavou away: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Pelhřimov, 1.46 for Žďár nad Sázavou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PEL 2–1 ZDA · ZDA 1–1 PEL · ZDA 4–2 PEL · PEL 3–0 ZDA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 13 Sept

PELHŘIMOV

WWWLLL5–0 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4

ŽĎÁR NAD SÁZAVOU

LLLLLD0–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kuřim	12	+34	25
2	Sparta Brno	12	+11	25
3	Tatran Bohunice	12	+14	24
4	Velká Bíteš	11	+6	21
5	Havlíčkův Brod	11	+7	20
6	FS Třebíč	11	−2	20
7	Znojmo	12	+5	18
8	Sokol Tasovice	11	+7	17
9	Pelhřimov	11	+3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	12	−4	14
11	Humpolec	11	−5	10
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	11	−7	10
13	Chotebor	11	−11	10
14	Velké Meziříčí	11	−14	10
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	−3	9
16	Bedrichov	12	−41	2