Pelhřimov v Sparta Brno prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Pelhřimov 0–3 Sparta Brno PELHŘIMOV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pelhřimov win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pelhřimov win50%

Draw20%

Sparta Brno win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pelhřimov

Sparta Brno

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sparta Brno	9	+1	16
8	Pelhřimov	9	+8	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pelhřimov winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Pelhřimov a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pelhřimov win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pelhřimov win	50%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Sparta Brno win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Pelhřimov or draw	70%	–	–
Pelhřimov clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sparta Brno clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.3 3.0 2.8 1 3.9 7.4 6.1 3.6 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 3.9 3 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.0 4 2.0 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pelhřimov down, Sparta Brno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,160 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pelhřimov at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Brno away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Pelhřimov, 1.76 for Sparta Brno. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEL 3–1 SPA · SPA 3–4 PEL

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D

PELHŘIMOV

DLWWWL2–2 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–2

SPARTA BRNO

LWLWWW0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
2	Kuřim	10	+25	19
3	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
4	Velká Bíteš	9	+5	18
5	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
6	Sparta Brno	9	+1	16
7	Znojmo	10	+5	15
8	Pelhřimov	9	+8	14
9	Sokol Tasovice	9	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	9	−1	10
11	Humpolec	9	−2	9
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
13	Chotebor	9	−8	9
14	Velké Meziříčí	9	−10	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	10	−34	2