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Humpolec v Velká Bíteš

Humpolec

1–4Full time

Velká Bíteš

4. liga - Divizie D · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Humpolec 1–4 Velká Bíteš VELKÁ BÍTEŠ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Velká Bíteš win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Velká Bíteš win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Velká Bíteš 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
4′Little has changed for our model: Velká Bíteš 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
25′We said Velká Bíteš at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–22–16
27′We said Velká Bíteš at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–22–15
45′We said Velká Bíteš at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 66–23–11
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Humpolec 1–0 Velká Bíteš
46′SECOND HALF Humpolec 1–0 Velká Bíteš
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Velká Bíteš win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Humpolec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Velká Bíteš win 11%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Humpolec 1–1 Velká Bíteš
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Humpolec 1–2 Velká Bíteš
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Humpolec 2–2 Velká Bíteš
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Humpolec 1–3 Velká Bíteš
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Humpolec 1–4 Velká Bíteš
FTFULL TIME Humpolec 1–4 Velká Bíteš
FTHumpolec 1–4 Velká Bíteš · Velká Bíteš win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Humpolec win34%

Draw25%

Velká Bíteš win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Humpolec

Velká Bíteš

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Velká Bíteš	9	+5	18
11	Humpolec	9	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velká bíteš winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Velká Bíteš a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Humpolec win	34%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Velká Bíteš win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Humpolec or draw	59%	–	–
Humpolec clean sheet	21%	–	–
Velká Bíteš clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 7.6 6.3 3.3 1 6.8 11.5 8.5 4.5 2 5.1 7.7 6.0 3.2 3 2.4 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Humpolec down, Velká Bíteš across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,160 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Humpolec at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Velká Bíteš away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Humpolec, 1.58 for Velká Bíteš. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUM 3–2 VEL · VEL 1–3 HUM · HUM 2–4 VEL · VEL 2–1 HUM

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D

HUMPOLEC

LLLWDW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

VELKÁ BÍTEŠ

DWDWDW2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 6–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
2	Kuřim	10	+25	19
3	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
4	Velká Bíteš	9	+5	18
5	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
6	Sparta Brno	9	+1	16
7	Znojmo	10	+5	15
8	Pelhřimov	9	+8	14
9	Sokol Tasovice	9	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	9	−1	10
11	Humpolec	9	−2	9
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
13	Chotebor	9	−8	9
14	Velké Meziříčí	9	−10	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	10	−34	2