Humpolec v Havlíčkův Brod prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Humpolec 1–1 Havlíčkův Brod HAVLÍČKŮV BROD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Havlíčkův Brod win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Havlíčkův Brod just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Humpolec 37%, draw 25%, Havlíčkův Brod 38%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Humpolec v Havlíčkův BrodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Humpolec win37%

Draw25%

Havlíčkův Brod win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Humpolec

Havlíčkův Brod

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
13	Humpolec	10	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · havlíčkův brod winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Havlíčkův Brod a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Humpolec v Havlíčkův Brod~~1.49 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Humpolec win	37%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Havlíčkův Brod win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Humpolec or draw	62%	–	–
Humpolec clean sheet	23%	–	–
Havlíčkův Brod clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 7.2 5.7 2.9 1 7.1 11.5 8.2 4.1 2 5.6 8.1 6.0 3.0 3 2.8 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Humpolec down, Havlíčkův Brod across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,168 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Humpolec at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Havlíčkův Brod away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Humpolec, 1.50 for Havlíčkův Brod. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAV 2–0 HUM · HUM 2–3 HAV · HUM 1–1 HAV · HAV 2–1 HUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept

HUMPOLEC

LLWDWL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–4

HAVLÍČKŮV BROD

DWLWWW0–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Brno	11	+8	22
2	Tatran Bohunice	11	+13	21
3	Velká Bíteš	10	+8	21
4	FS Třebíč	11	−2	20
5	Kuřim	10	+25	19
6	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
7	Sokol Tasovice	10	+8	17
8	Znojmo	10	+5	15
9	Pelhřimov	11	+3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	11	+3	14
11	Chotebor	11	−11	10
12	Velké Meziříčí	11	−14	10
13	Humpolec	10	−5	9
14	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	11	−38	2