FS Třebíč v Pelhřimov prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

FS Třebíč 4–2 Pelhřimov FS TŘEBÍČ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FS Třebíč win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FS Třebíč just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FS Třebíč 40%, draw 23%, Pelhřimov 38%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FS Třebíč v PelhřimovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FS Třebíč win40%

Draw23%

Pelhřimov win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FS Třebíč

Pelhřimov

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
9	Pelhřimov	10	+5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fs třebíč winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make FS Třebíč a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FS Třebíč v Pelhřimov~~1.78 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FS Třebíč win

Published at 38%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FS Třebíč win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Pelhřimov win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
FS Třebíč or draw	62%	–	–
FS Třebíč clean sheet	18%	–	–
Pelhřimov clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.9 4.5 2.6 1 5.0 9.5 7.7 4.5 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.7 3.9 3 2.8 4.7 4.0 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FS Třebíč down, Pelhřimov across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,164 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FS Třebíč at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pelhřimov away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for FS Třebíč, 1.74 for Pelhřimov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEL 5–2 FST · FST 1–1 PEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept

FS TŘEBÍČ

LWWDWD1–6 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

PELHŘIMOV

LWWWLL0–2 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Velká Bíteš	10	+8	21
2	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
3	Kuřim	10	+25	19
4	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
5	Sparta Brno	10	+4	19
6	Sokol Tasovice	10	+8	17
7	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
8	Znojmo	10	+5	15
9	Pelhřimov	10	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	10	−1	11
11	Velké Meziříčí	10	−10	10
12	Humpolec	10	−5	9
13	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
14	Chotebor	10	−11	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	10	−34	2