Chotebor v Tatran Bohunice prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Chotebor 1–1 Tatran Bohunice TATRAN BOHUNICE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tatran Bohunice win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tatran Bohunice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chotebor 24%, draw 26%, Tatran Bohunice 51%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Chotebor v Tatran BohuniceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chotebor win24%

Draw26%

Tatran Bohunice win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chotebor

Tatran Bohunice

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
14	Chotebor	10	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatran bohunice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Tatran Bohunice a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chotebor v Tatran Bohunice~~1.01 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 20~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tatran Bohunice win

Published at 49%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chotebor win	24%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Tatran Bohunice win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Chotebor or draw	49%	–	–
Chotebor clean sheet	21%	–	–
Tatran Bohunice clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 11.3 9.4 5.1 2.1 1 6.9 12.0 9.1 4.9 2.1 2 3.8 5.9 4.6 2.5 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chotebor down, Tatran Bohunice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,164 4. liga - Divizie D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie D matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chotebor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tatran Bohunice away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Chotebor, 1.61 for Tatran Bohunice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TAT 2–1 CHO · CHO 0–2 TAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept

CHOTEBOR

WDWDLL2–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4

TATRAN BOHUNICE

WWWLLW4–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Velká Bíteš	10	+8	21
2	Tatran Bohunice	10	+13	20
3	Kuřim	10	+25	19
4	Havlíčkův Brod	10	+7	19
5	Sparta Brno	10	+4	19
6	Sokol Tasovice	10	+8	17
7	FS Třebíč	10	−4	17
8	Znojmo	10	+5	15
9	Pelhřimov	10	+5	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	10	−1	11
11	Velké Meziříčí	10	−10	10
12	Humpolec	10	−5	9
13	Ždírec nad Doubravou	10	−7	9
14	Chotebor	10	−11	9
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	10	−3	8
16	Bedrichov	10	−34	2