Ústí nad Orlicí v Trutnov prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ústí nad Orlicí 1–2 Trutnov ÚSTÍ NAD ORLICÍ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ústí nad Orlicí win~~64%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.166

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ústí nad Orlicí win at 64%.
8′Little has changed for our model: Ústí nad Orlicí 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–16
11′Little has changed for our model: Ústí nad Orlicí 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ústí nad Orlicí 1–0 Trutnov
27′We said Ústí nad Orlicí at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 64% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 64% now
30′We said Ústí nad Orlicí at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 64% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Ústí nad Orlicí 1–0 Trutnov
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ústí nad Orlicí win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ústí nad Orlicí 1–0 Trutnov
46′SECOND HALF Ústí nad Orlicí 1–0 Trutnov
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ústí nad Orlicí 1–0 Trutnov
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ústí nad Orlicí 1–1 Trutnov
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ústí nad Orlicí 1–2 Trutnov
FTFULL TIME Ústí nad Orlicí 1–2 Trutnov
FTÚstí nad Orlicí 1–2 Trutnov · Ústí nad Orlicí win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ústí nad Orlicí win64%

Draw20%

Trutnov win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStadion TJ Jiskra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ústí nad Orlicí

Trutnov

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	9	+12	20
6	Trutnov	9	+5	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ústí nad orlicí winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

64% The market53%

Us64%

~~Market~~53%

We make Ústí nad Orlicí a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ústí nad orlicí win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ústí nad Orlicí win	64%	53%	+11
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Trutnov win	16%	22%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
Ústí nad Orlicí or draw	84%	78%	+7
Ústí nad Orlicí clean sheet	39%	–	–
Trutnov clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.9 3.8 2.1 1 8.9 9.2 4.3 2 10.0 9.4 4.6 3 7.4 6.8 3.3 4 4.2 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ústí nad Orlicí down, Trutnov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,275 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ústí nad Orlicí at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Trutnov away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Ústí nad Orlicí, 0.97 for Trutnov. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UST 2–0 TRU · TRU 2–5 UST · TRU 1–2 UST · UST 1–3 TRU

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C

ÚSTÍ NAD ORLICÍ

LWWDWW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

TRUTNOV

WDLWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kosmonosy	10	+18	25
2	Přepeře	10	+22	24
3	Vysoké Mýto	9	+15	23
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	9	+12	20
5	Turnov	10	+7	17
6	Trutnov	9	+5	16
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	9	+3	16
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
9	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
10	Kolín	9	−1	12
11	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
12	Vykan	10	−3	10
13	Dvůr Králové	9	−4	10
14	Svitavy	9	−12	5
15	Letohrad	10	−25	1
16	Chrudim II	9	−27	1