Turnov v Slavia Hradec Králové prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Turnov 3–0 Slavia Hradec Králové TURNOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Turnov win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turnov win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Turnov was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
1′KICK-OFF Turnov v Slavia Hradec Králové
11′We published Turnov at 71%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–5
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Turnov 1–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Turnov win: 71% at kick-off, 86% now
30′We published Turnov at 71%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
45′We said Turnov at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–27–16
45′HALF-TIME Turnov 1–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Turnov
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Turnov win: 71% at kick-off, 57% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Turnov 1–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Turnov win: 71% at kick-off, 84% now
46′SECOND HALF Turnov 1–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
51′We said Turnov at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–16
74′We published Turnov at 71%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Turnov 2–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Turnov win: 71% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Turnov at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Turnov 3–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
FTFULL TIME Turnov 3–0 Slavia Hradec Králové
FTTurnov 3–0 Slavia Hradec Králové · Turnov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Turnov are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Turnov 71%, draw 16%, Slavia Hradec Králové 14%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Turnov v Slavia Hradec KrálovéBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Turnov win71%

Draw16%

Slavia Hradec Králové win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Turnov

Slavia Hradec Králové

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Turnov	10	+7	17
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · turnov winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Turnov a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Turnov v Slavia Hradec Králové~~2.92 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 11~~6 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Turnov win	71%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Slavia Hradec Králové win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Turnov or draw	86%	–	–
Turnov clean sheet	29%	–	–
Slavia Hradec Králové clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.0 1 4.6 6.1 3.6 2 6.7 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 6.3 7.6 4.7 4 4.6 5.5 3.4 5 2.7 3.3 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Turnov down, Slavia Hradec Králové across0–5 goals a side shown (91.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Turnov at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Hradec Králové away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.92 goals for Turnov, 1.24 for Slavia Hradec Králové. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–3 TUR · TUR 0–0 SLA · TUR 6–0 SLA · SLA 2–1 TUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 6 Sept

TURNOV

LWWWWD0–1 · 4–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–2

SLAVIA HRADEC KRÁLOVÉ

LLWLLD0–1 · 2–7 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	11	+18	29
2	Přepeře	11	+23	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	+17	25
4	Trutnov	11	+7	22
5	Ústí nad Orlicí	11	+10	20
6	Turnov	10	+7	17
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	10	+3	17
8	Kolín	11	+2	15
9	Dvůr Králové	11	−3	14
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
11	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
13	Vykan	11	−4	10
14	Svitavy	10	−14	5
15	Letohrad	11	−25	2
16	Chrudim II	11	−31	2