Spartak Police n/Metují v Hlinsko prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Spartak Police n/Metují 3–2 Hlinsko SPARTAK POLICE N/METUJÍ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Police n/Metují win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Police n/Metují are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Police n/Metují 56%, draw 20%, Hlinsko 24%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Police n/Metují v HlinskoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Police n/Metují win56%

Draw20%

Hlinsko win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Police n/Metují

Hlinsko

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
11	Hlinsko	10	−3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak police n/metují winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Spartak Police n/Metují a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Police n/Metují v Hlinsko~~2.33 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 13~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Police n/Metují win	56%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Hlinsko win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Spartak Police n/Metují or draw	76%	–	–
Spartak Police n/Metují clean sheet	23%	–	–
Hlinsko clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 3.1 2.5 1 4.9 8.0 5.7 2.8 2 5.9 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 4.6 6.6 4.9 2.5 4 2.7 3.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Police n/Metují down, Hlinsko across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Police n/Metují at home: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hlinsko away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Spartak Police n/Metují, 1.50 for Hlinsko. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HLI 2–2 SPA · SPA 5–1 HLI · SPA 4–1 HLI · HLI 3–0 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTAK POLICE N/METUJÍ

LLLWWD1–4 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

HLINSKO

LWLLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	11	+18	29
2	Přepeře	11	+23	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	+17	25
4	Trutnov	11	+7	22
5	Ústí nad Orlicí	11	+10	20
6	Turnov	10	+7	17
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	10	+3	17
8	Kolín	11	+2	15
9	Dvůr Králové	11	−3	14
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
11	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
13	Vykan	11	−4	10
14	Svitavy	10	−14	5
15	Letohrad	11	−25	2
16	Chrudim II	11	−31	2