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Přepeře v Ústí nad Orlicí

Přepeře

1–0Full time

Ústí nad Orlicí

4. liga - Divizie C · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Přepeře 1–0 Ústí nad Orlicí PŘEPEŘE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Přepeře win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.402

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Přepeře win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Přepeře was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Přepeře v Ústí nad Orlicí
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Přepeře 0–0 Ústí nad Orlicí
46′SECOND HALF Přepeře 0–0 Ústí nad Orlicí
50′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–41–23
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Přepeře win 36%)
55′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
56′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–45–21
64′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
71′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
76′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
81′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
85′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′We published Přepeře at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Přepeře 1–0 Ústí nad Orlicí
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Přepeře win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
91′We said Přepeře at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Přepeře
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Přepeře win 4%)
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Přepeře 1–0 Ústí nad Orlicí
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Přepeře win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Přepeře win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Přepeře 1–0 Ústí nad Orlicí
FTPřepeře 1–0 Ústí nad Orlicí · Přepeře win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Přepeře are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Přepeře 48%, draw 26%, Ústí nad Orlicí 26%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Přepeře v Ústí nad OrlicíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Přepeře win48%

Draw26%

Ústí nad Orlicí win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Přepeře

Ústí nad Orlicí

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Přepeře	10	+22	24
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	10	+11	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · přepeře winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Přepeře a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Přepeře v Ústí nad Orlicí~~1.65 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 20~~3 v 4

~~The market · Přepeře win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Přepeře win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Přepeře win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Ústí nad Orlicí win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	45%	−14
Přepeře or draw	74%	78%	−4
Přepeře clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ústí nad Orlicí clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.2 6.7 4.1 1 9.5 11.9 6.4 2.5 2 8.2 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.6 5.1 2.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Přepeře down, Ústí nad Orlicí across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,279 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Přepeře at home: 4.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ústí nad Orlicí away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Přepeře, 1.14 for Ústí nad Orlicí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PRE 4–3 UST · UST 0–3 PRE · PRE 4–2 UST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 5 Sept

PŘEPEŘE

WWWLWW8–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 5–0

ÚSTÍ NAD ORLICÍ

WWDWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	10	+17	26
2	Kosmonosy	10	+18	25
3	Přepeře	10	+22	24
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	10	+11	20
5	Trutnov	10	+6	19
6	Turnov	10	+7	17
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	10	+3	17
8	Kolín	10	+3	15
9	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
10	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
11	Dvůr Králové	10	−4	11
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
13	Vykan	10	−3	10
14	Svitavy	10	−14	5
15	Letohrad	10	−25	1
16	Chrudim II	10	−31	1