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Model 1.2

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Hlinsko v Turnov

Hlinsko
1–3Full time
Turnov

4. liga - Divizie C · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08
Hlinsko 1–3 Turnov TURNOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Turnov win46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 42 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Turnov win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Turnov was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 34–20–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hlinsko v Turnov
  4. 12′We published Turnov at 46%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 17–17–66
  5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Hlinsko 0–1 Turnov
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Turnov
  8. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 44% now
  9. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hlinsko 0–1 Turnov
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 66% now
  11. 37′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–1 · 32–27–41
  12. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Hlinsko 1–1 Turnov
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Hlinsko 1–1 Turnov
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Hlinsko 1–1 Turnov
  16. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  17. 59′We said Turnov at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 28–37–34
  18. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Turnov win 36%)
  19. 69′We said Turnov at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 24–47–29
  20. 69′We published Turnov at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 5–19–76
  21. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hlinsko 1–2 Turnov
  22. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  23. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Turnov win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 47%)
  24. 73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Hlinsko
  25. 73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Turnov
  26. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  27. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Turnov win 78%)
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Hlinsko 1–2 Turnov
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
  30. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Turnov win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 52%)
  31. 75′We published Turnov at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  32. 76′We published Turnov at 46%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–3 · 0–3–97
  33. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Hlinsko 1–3 Turnov
  34. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
  35. 77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Turnov
  36. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
  37. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Hlinsko
  38. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Turnov
  39. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
  40. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Turnov win 84%)
  41. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hlinsko 1–3 Turnov
  42. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
  43. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Turnov win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 68%)
  44. 86′We said Turnov at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–0 · 9–80–11
  45. 86′We published Turnov at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  46. 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Hlinsko
  47. 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Turnov
  48. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
  49. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Turnov win over 99%)
  50. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Hlinsko 1–3 Turnov
  51. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Turnov win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
  52. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Turnov win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 87%)
  53. FTFULL TIME Hlinsko 1–3 Turnov
  54. FTHlinsko 1–3 Turnov · Turnov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Turnov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hlinsko 34%, draw 20%, Turnov 46%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Hlinsko v TurnovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hlinsko win34%
Draw20%
Turnov win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hlinsko

Turnov

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Turnov11+1020
11Hlinsko11−413

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · turnov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
46% The market–
Us46%

We make Turnov a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hlinsko v Turnov1.96 – 2.28
Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 12 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 13 v 2011 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 09:09
Our probability · Turnov win

Published at 45%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hlinsko win34%––
Draw20%––
Turnov win46%––
Over 2.5 goals79%––
Both teams to score76%––
Over 1.5 goals92%––
Over 3.5 goals61%––
Hlinsko or draw54%––
Hlinsko clean sheet11%––
Turnov clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.2%
0123450 3.2 3.8 2.8 1 2.7 6.8 7.2 5.4 3.1 2 2.9 6.3 6.9 5.2 3.0 3 4.1 4.5 3.4 4 2.0 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hlinsko down, Turnov across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsTUR 4–0 HLI · HLI 7–1 TUR · TUR 1–1 HLI · HLI 0–2 TUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 12 Sept

HLINSKO

WLLLLL1–0 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–5 · 2–3

TURNOV

WWWWDW4–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vysoké Mýto11+1829
2Přepeře11+2327
3Kosmonosy11+1725
4Trutnov11+722
5Turnov11+1020
6Ústí nad Orlicí11+1020
7Chlumec nad Cidlinou11+620
8Spartak Police n/Metují11−116
9Kolín11+215
10Dvůr Králové11−314
11Hlinsko11−413
12Slavia Hradec Králové11−811
13Vykan11−410
14Svitavy11−175
15Letohrad11−252
16Chrudim II11−312

The competition's standings before kick-off.