Dvůr Králové v Spartak Police n/Metují prediction · 4. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dvůr KrálovéDrawSpartak Police n/Metují

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Dvůr Králové 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dvůr Králové are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dvůr Králové 41%, draw 27%, Spartak Police n/Metují 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dvůr Králové v Spartak Police n/MetujíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Dvůr Králové win41%

Draw27%

Spartak Police n/Metují win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dvůr Králové

Spartak Police n/Metují

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	−1	16
10	Dvůr Králové	11	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dvůr králové winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Dvůr Králové a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dvůr Králové v Spartak Police n/Metují~~1.43 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dvůr Králové win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Spartak Police n/Metují win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Dvůr Králové or draw	68%	–	–
Dvůr Králové clean sheet	29%	–	–
Spartak Police n/Metují clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 8.2 5.4 2.3 1 9.3 12.5 7.4 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dvůr Králové down, Spartak Police n/Metují across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dvůr Králové at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Police n/Metují away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Dvůr Králové, 1.24 for Spartak Police n/Metují. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DVU 1–2 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 13 Sept

DVŮR KRÁLOVÉ

LLWLDW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

SPARTAK POLICE N/METUJÍ

LLWWDW1–3 · 3–5 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	12	+18	30
2	Přepeře	12	+20	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	+17	25
4	Trutnov	12	+10	25
5	Turnov	12	+12	23
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	12	+10	21
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	12	+6	21
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	−1	16
9	Kolín	11	+2	15
10	Dvůr Králové	11	−3	14
11	Slavia Hradec Králové	12	−4	14
12	Hlinsko	12	−6	13
13	Vykan	12	−4	11
14	Svitavy	11	−17	5
15	Letohrad	11	−25	2
16	Chrudim II	12	−35	2