Dvůr Králové v Chlumec nad Cidlinou prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Dvůr Králové 0–0 Chlumec nad Cidlinou DVŮR KRÁLOVÉ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dvůr Králové win~~36%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dvůr Králové win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Dvůr Králové v Chlumec nad Cidlinou
2′Little has changed for our model: Dvůr Králové 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
5′Little has changed for our model: Dvůr Králové 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Dvůr Králové 0–1 Chlumec nad Cidlinou
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Dvůr Králové win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Dvůr Králové 0–0 Chlumec nad Cidlinou
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Dvůr Králové win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF Dvůr Králové 0–0 Chlumec nad Cidlinou
FTFULL TIME Dvůr Králové 0–0 Chlumec nad Cidlinou
FTDvůr Králové 0–0 Chlumec nad Cidlinou · Dvůr Králové win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dvůr Králové win36%

Draw28%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dvůr Králové

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	9	+3	16
13	Dvůr Králové	9	−4	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dvůr králové winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

36% The market24%

Us36%

~~Market~~24%

We make Dvůr Králové a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dvůr králové win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dvůr Králové win	36%	24%	+12
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Chlumec nad Cidlinou win	36%	52%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	46%	61%	−15
Both teams to score	51%	61%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	25%	41%	−16
Dvůr Králové or draw	64%	48%	+16
Dvůr Králové clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chlumec nad Cidlinou clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.1 9.6 6.4 2.7 1 9.6 12.9 7.7 3.3 2 6.4 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dvůr Králové down, Chlumec nad Cidlinou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,275 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dvůr Králové at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chlumec nad Cidlinou away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Dvůr Králové, 1.25 for Chlumec nad Cidlinou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C

DVŮR KRÁLOVÉ

WLLLWL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

CHLUMEC NAD CIDLINOU

LWWWWW1–3 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kosmonosy	10	+18	25
2	Přepeře	10	+22	24
3	Vysoké Mýto	9	+15	23
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	9	+12	20
5	Turnov	10	+7	17
6	Trutnov	9	+5	16
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	9	+3	16
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
9	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
10	Kolín	9	−1	12
11	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
12	Vykan	10	−3	10
13	Dvůr Králové	9	−4	10
14	Svitavy	9	−12	5
15	Letohrad	10	−25	1
16	Chrudim II	9	−27	1