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Chlumec nad Cidlinou v Svitavy

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

4–1Full time

Svitavy

4. liga - Divizie C · SUN 18 OCT · Mestsky Stadion Chlumec

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 4–1 Svitavy CHLUMEC NAD CIDLINOU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou win~~64%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.197

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.137

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chlumec nad Cidlinou win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chlumec nad Cidlinou was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–17
1′KICK-OFF Chlumec nad Cidlinou v Svitavy
5′We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–1 · 40–22–37
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 0–1 Svitavy
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 40% now
8′We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–23–38
9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Svitavy
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 62% now
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 0–1 Svitavy
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 38% now
10′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Svitavy
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 62% now
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 0–1 Svitavy
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 38% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Svitavy win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Chlumec nad Cidlinou win 35%)
21′We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–25–41
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1–1 Svitavy
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Svitavy win 18%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
41′We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 52–30–18
43′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 51–31–18
45′HALF-TIME Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1–1 Svitavy
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Chlumec nad Cidlinou
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Svitavy
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1–1 Svitavy
46′SECOND HALF Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1–1 Svitavy
48′We said Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–33–17
48′We published Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–14–4
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2–1 Svitavy
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
55′We published Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
55′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3–1 Svitavy
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
67′We published Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Chlumec nad Cidlinou 4–1 Svitavy
FTFULL TIME Chlumec nad Cidlinou 4–1 Svitavy
FTChlumec nad Cidlinou 4–1 Svitavy · Chlumec nad Cidlinou win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chlumec nad Cidlinou are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 64%, draw 19%, Svitavy 17%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Chlumec nad Cidlinou v SvitavyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chlumec nad Cidlinou win64%

Draw19%

Svitavy win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup C · matchday 11

VenueMestsky Stadion Chlumec

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Svitavy

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	10	+3	17
14	Svitavy	10	−14	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chlumec nad cidlinou winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market70%

Us64%

~~Market~~70%

We make Chlumec nad Cidlinou a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chlumec nad Cidlinou v Svitavy~~2.32 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 5~~7 v 14

~~The market · Chlumec nad Cidlinou win~~70% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chlumec nad Cidlinou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chlumec nad Cidlinou win	64%	70%	−6
Draw	19%	18%	+1
Svitavy win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw	83%	88%	−5
Chlumec nad Cidlinou clean sheet	34%	–	–
Svitavy clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 3.4 2.1 1 7.4 8.7 4.6 2 8.7 9.4 5.2 3 6.7 7.2 4.0 4 3.9 4.2 2.3 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Chlumec nad Cidlinou down, Svitavy across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 4. liga - Divizie C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Svitavy away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Chlumec nad Cidlinou, 1.10 for Svitavy. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHL 4–1 SVI · SVI 0–2 CHL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie C this season · since 6 Sept

CHLUMEC NAD CIDLINOU

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

SVITAVY

LDDLLL1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	11	+18	29
2	Přepeře	11	+23	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	+17	25
4	Trutnov	11	+7	22
5	Ústí nad Orlicí	11	+10	20
6	Turnov	10	+7	17
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	10	+3	17
8	Kolín	11	+2	15
9	Dvůr Králové	11	−3	14
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	10	−2	13
11	Hlinsko	10	−3	13
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	10	−5	11
13	Vykan	11	−4	10
14	Svitavy	10	−14	5
15	Letohrad	11	−25	2
16	Chrudim II	11	−31	2