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Újezd Praha 4 v Rapid Psáry

Újezd Praha 4

2–2Full time

Rapid Psáry

4. liga - Divizie B · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Újezd Praha 4 2–2 Rapid Psáry ÚJEZD PRAHA 4 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Újezd Praha 4 win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.922

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Újezd Praha 4 win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Újezd Praha 4 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Újezd Praha 4 v Rapid Psáry
14′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–22–53
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Újezd Praha 4 0–1 Rapid Psáry
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Rapid Psáry win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Újezd Praha 4 win 25%)
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Rapid Psáry
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Újezd Praha 4 win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Rapid Psáry win 29%)
27′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Újezd Praha 4 0–1 Rapid Psáry
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Rapid Psáry win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Újezd Praha 4 win 21%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 20–23–56
33′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Újezd Praha 4 0–1 Rapid Psáry
46′SECOND HALF Újezd Praha 4 0–1 Rapid Psáry
48′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Újezd Praha 4 1–1 Rapid Psáry
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
54′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–39–25
55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–39–25 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Rapid Psáry win 24%)
59′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–42–24
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Újezd Praha 4
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Rapid Psáry
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Újezd Praha 4 1–1 Rapid Psáry
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Újezd Praha 4
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Rapid Psáry
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Újezd Praha 4 1–1 Rapid Psáry
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Újezd Praha 4
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Rapid Psáry
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Újezd Praha 4 1–1 Rapid Psáry
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Újezd Praha 4
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Rapid Psáry
77′We published Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Újezd Praha 4 1–1 Rapid Psáry
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Újezd Praha 4 2–1 Rapid Psáry
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 85% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Újezd Praha 4 win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
79′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 18–69–13
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Újezd Praha 4 2–2 Rapid Psáry
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Újezd Praha 4 win 18%)
87′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Újezd Praha 4 win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
92′We said Újezd Praha 4 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Újezd Praha 4 2–2 Rapid Psáry
FTÚjezd Praha 4 2–2 Rapid Psáry · Újezd Praha 4 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Újezd Praha 4 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Újezd Praha 4 48%, draw 22%, Rapid Psáry 29%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Újezd Praha 4 v Rapid PsáryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Újezd Praha 4 win48%

Draw22%

Rapid Psáry win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Újezd Praha 4

Rapid Psáry

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	+5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	+12	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · újezd praha 4 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Újezd Praha 4 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Újezd Praha 4 v Rapid Psáry~~1.95 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 19~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Újezd Praha 4 win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rapid Psáry win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Újezd Praha 4 or draw	71%	–	–
Újezd Praha 4 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Rapid Psáry clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 4.6 3.6 1 6.1 9.6 6.7 3.4 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.0 5.8 4.2 2.1 4 2.0 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Újezd Praha 4 down, Rapid Psáry across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,265 4. liga - Divizie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Újezd Praha 4 at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rapid Psáry away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Újezd Praha 4, 1.48 for Rapid Psáry. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UJE 1–1 RAP · RAP 4–5 UJE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 5 Sept

ÚJEZD PRAHA 4

WLWDWW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–2

RAPID PSÁRY

WLWWDW5–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	+18	22
2	Chomutov	10	+12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	+5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	+12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	+8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	+2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	0	15
8	Slaný	10	+8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	+2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	−5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	+2	13
12	Štětí	10	−3	12
13	Ostrov	10	−10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	−14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	−19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	−18	6