Ostrov v Štětí prediction · 4. liga - Divizie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Ostrov 1–4 Štětí OSTROV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ostrov win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ostrov win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ostrov was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
1′KICK-OFF Ostrov v Štětí
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Ostrov win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Ostrov 0–0 Štětí
46′SECOND HALF Ostrov 0–0 Štětí
47′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–36–23
47′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ostrov 0–1 Štětí
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Ostrov win: 53% at kick-off, 15% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Štětí win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Ostrov win 15%)
50′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Ostrov win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
53′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–41–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
57′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
57′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 3–9–89
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ostrov 0–2 Štětí
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ostrov win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
60′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ostrov 0–3 Štětí
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ostrov 0–4 Štětí
61′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
69′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ostrov 1–4 Štětí
75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Ostrov
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ostrov 1–4 Štětí
87′We said Ostrov at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–6
FTFULL TIME Ostrov 1–4 Štětí
FTOstrov 1–4 Štětí · Ostrov win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ostrov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ostrov 53%, draw 23%, Štětí 25%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ostrov v ŠtětíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ostrov win53%

Draw23%

Štětí win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ostrov

Štětí

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Štětí	10	−3	12
13	Ostrov	10	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ostrov winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Ostrov a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ostrov v Štětí~~1.94 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~13 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ostrov win

Published at 54%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostrov win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Štětí win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Ostrov or draw	75%	–	–
Ostrov clean sheet	29%	–	–
Štětí clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 5.0 3.3 1 7.7 10.2 6.2 2.6 2 7.6 9.3 5.8 2.5 3 4.9 6.0 3.8 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostrov down, Štětí across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,265 4. liga - Divizie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ostrov at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Štětí away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Ostrov, 1.27 for Štětí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STE 3–1 OST · OST 1–2 STE · STE 2–1 OST · OST 1–2 STE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 5 Sept

OSTROV

DLLWWL2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

ŠTĚTÍ

LDWWDD1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	+18	22
2	Chomutov	10	+12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	+5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	+12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	+8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	+2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	0	15
8	Slaný	10	+8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	+2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	−5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	+2	13
12	Štětí	10	−3	12
13	Ostrov	10	−10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	−14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	−19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	−18	6