Karlovy Vary v Ústí nad Labem II prediction · 4. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Karlovy VaryDrawÚstí nad Labem II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Karlovy Vary 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karlovy Vary are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlovy Vary 66%, draw 17%, Ústí nad Labem II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Karlovy Vary v Ústí nad Labem IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Karlovy Vary win66%

Draw17%

Ústí nad Labem II win17%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 13

VenueStadion Drahovice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlovy Vary

Ústí nad Labem II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

Last match: 24 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Karlovy Vary	12	+3	17
16	Ústí nad Labem II	12	−21	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karlovy vary winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Karlovy Vary a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlovy Vary v Ústí nad Labem II~~2.74 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 9~~9 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlovy Vary win	66%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Ústí nad Labem II win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Karlovy Vary or draw	83%	–	–
Karlovy Vary clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ústí nad Labem II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 2.3 1 4.6 6.5 4.3 2 6.3 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 5.6 7.3 4.9 2.2 4 3.8 5.0 3.4 5 2.2 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlovy Vary down, Ústí nad Labem II across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 4. liga - Divizie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlovy Vary at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ústí nad Labem II away: 0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.74 goals for Karlovy Vary, 1.35 for Ústí nad Labem II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UST 5–2 KAR · KAR 4–0 UST · UST 4–2 KAR · KAR 3–1 UST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 18 Sept

KARLOVY VARY

WLLDDW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM II

LDLDLW1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–6 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chomutov	12	+15	28
2	Újezd Praha 4	12	+6	24
3	Rapid Psáry	12	+14	23
4	Sokol Hostouň	11	+16	22
5	Slaný	12	+12	18
6	Baník Sokolov	12	+5	18
7	Brandýs nad Labem	12	+1	18
8	Štětí	12	+1	18
9	Karlovy Vary	12	+3	17
10	Tempo Praha	12	+3	17
11	Meteor Praha	11	0	16
12	Slovan Velvary	12	−10	14
13	Hvězda Cheb	12	−14	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	12	−14	10
15	Ostrov	12	−17	10
16	Ústí nad Labem II	12	−21	9