Hvězda Cheb v Karlovy Vary prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Hvězda Cheb 1–2 Karlovy Vary KARLOVY VARY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Karlovy Vary win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karlovy Vary win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karlovy Vary 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 23–18–58
1′KICK-OFF Hvězda Cheb v Karlovy Vary
22′We said Karlovy Vary at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 10–14–76
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Hvězda Cheb 0–1 Karlovy Vary
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Hvězda Cheb 0–1 Karlovy Vary
46′SECOND HALF Hvězda Cheb 0–1 Karlovy Vary
49′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 23–30–47 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Hvězda Cheb 1–1 Karlovy Vary
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
55′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 23–33–44
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Hvězda Cheb
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Karlovy Vary
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Hvězda Cheb 1–1 Karlovy Vary
64′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 21–40–39
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Karlovy Vary win 40%)
70′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 19–47–34
75′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 16–55–29
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
79′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 14–63–24
82′We said Karlovy Vary at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 11–70–19
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
84′We said Karlovy Vary at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hvězda Cheb 1–2 Karlovy Vary
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 91% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Karlovy Vary win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 73%)
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Hvězda Cheb
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Karlovy Vary
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 12% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Karlovy Vary win 93%)
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Hvězda Cheb 1–2 Karlovy Vary
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Karlovy Vary win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Karlovy Vary win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 81%)
90′We said Karlovy Vary at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Hvězda Cheb 1–2 Karlovy Vary
FTHvězda Cheb 1–2 Karlovy Vary · Karlovy Vary win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karlovy Vary are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hvězda Cheb 23%, draw 18%, Karlovy Vary 59%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Hvězda Cheb v Karlovy VaryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hvězda Cheb win23%

Draw18%

Karlovy Vary win59%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hvězda Cheb

Karlovy Vary

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Karlovy Vary	11	+2	14
14	Hvězda Cheb	11	−13	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karlovy vary winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Karlovy Vary a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hvězda Cheb v Karlovy Vary~~1.67 – 2.70

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~14 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karlovy Vary win

Published at 65%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hvězda Cheb win	23%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Karlovy Vary win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Hvězda Cheb or draw	41%	–	–
Hvězda Cheb clean sheet	8%	–	–
Karlovy Vary clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 3.5 4.7 4.1 2.8 1 2.2 6.2 7.5 6.5 4.4 2.42 4.8 6.1 5.3 3.5 3 2.7 3.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hvězda Cheb down, Karlovy Vary across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,273 4. liga - Divizie B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hvězda Cheb at home: 2.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karlovy Vary away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Hvězda Cheb, 2.70 for Karlovy Vary. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 12 Sept

HVĚZDA CHEB

LLLDLW1–3 · 1–3 · 2–7 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 6–0

KARLOVY VARY

WWLLDD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chomutov	11	+14	25
2	Sokol Hostouň	11	+16	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	11	+5	21
4	Rapid Psáry	11	+12	20
5	Baník Sokolov	11	+6	18
6	Brandýs nad Labem	11	+2	18
7	Tempo Praha	11	+4	17
8	Meteor Praha	11	0	16
9	Slaný	11	+8	15
10	Štětí	11	0	15
11	Karlovy Vary	11	+2	14
12	Slovan Velvary	11	−8	14
13	Slavoj Vyšehrad	11	−11	10
14	Hvězda Cheb	11	−13	10
15	Ostrov	11	−13	10
16	Ústí nad Labem II	11	−24	6