Chomutov v Brandýs nad Labem prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Chomutov 1–0 Brandýs nad Labem CHOMUTOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chomutov win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chomutov win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chomutov was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–18
1′KICK-OFF Chomutov v Brandýs nad Labem
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
43′We said Chomutov at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–28–19
45′HALF-TIME Chomutov 0–0 Brandýs nad Labem
46′SECOND HALF Chomutov 0–0 Brandýs nad Labem
49′We published Chomutov at 65%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chomutov 1–0 Brandýs nad Labem
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 81% now
59′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 45–38–18
62′We said Chomutov at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–40–17
67′We said Chomutov at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–45–16
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Chomutov
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 38% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Chomutov win 84%)
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Chomutov 1–0 Brandýs nad Labem
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Chomutov win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 45%)
70′We published Chomutov at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
80′We published Chomutov at 65%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
88′We published Chomutov at 65%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Chomutov win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Chomutov 1–0 Brandýs nad Labem
FTChomutov 1–0 Brandýs nad Labem · Chomutov win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chomutov are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chomutov 65%, draw 18%, Brandýs nad Labem 17%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Chomutov v Brandýs nad LabemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chomutov win65%

Draw18%

Brandýs nad Labem win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 12

VenueLetni stadion na Zadnich Vinohradech

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chomutov

Brandýs nad Labem

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chomutov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Chomutov a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chomutov v Brandýs nad Labem~~2.63 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 18~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chomutov win

Published at 63%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chomutov win	65%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Brandýs nad Labem win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Chomutov or draw	83%	–	–
Chomutov clean sheet	28%	–	–
Brandýs nad Labem clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 2.5 1 5.2 7.1 4.4 2 6.8 8.5 5.5 2.4 3 5.8 7.3 4.7 2.1 4 3.8 4.8 3.1 5 2.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Chomutov down, Brandýs nad Labem across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,274 4. liga - Divizie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chomutov at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Brandýs nad Labem away: 2.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Chomutov, 1.30 for Brandýs nad Labem. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BRA 0–2 CHO · CHO 5–1 BRA · CHO 1–3 BRA · BRA 1–0 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie B this season · since 12 Sept

CHOMUTOV

LWWLDW0–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

BRANDÝS NAD LABEM

LWWWLW1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 1–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chomutov	11	+14	25
2	Sokol Hostouň	11	+16	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	11	+5	21
4	Rapid Psáry	11	+12	20
5	Baník Sokolov	11	+6	18
6	Brandýs nad Labem	11	+2	18
7	Tempo Praha	11	+4	17
8	Karlovy Vary	12	+3	17
9	Meteor Praha	11	0	16
10	Slaný	11	+8	15
11	Štětí	11	0	15
12	Slovan Velvary	11	−8	14
13	Slavoj Vyšehrad	11	−11	10
14	Ostrov	11	−13	10
15	Hvězda Cheb	12	−14	10
16	Ústí nad Labem II	11	−24	6