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Petřín Plzeň v Rokycany

Petřín Plzeň

2–1Full time

Rokycany

4. liga - Divizie A · SAT 17 OCT · SK Petrin Pilsen - grass

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Petřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany PETŘÍN PLZEŇ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Petřín Plzeň win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petřín Plzeň win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Petřín Plzeň 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–15
1′KICK-OFF Petřín Plzeň v Rokycany
8′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–25–38
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Petřín Plzeň 0–1 Rokycany
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 37% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Rokycany win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Petřín Plzeň win 35%)
16′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–26–40
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
27′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–43
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 28–28–44
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 55% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Petřín Plzeň win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Rokycany win 16%)
39′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 52–32–16
45′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–35–16
45′HALF-TIME Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
46′SECOND HALF Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' Petřín Plzeň
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' Rokycany
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Petřín Plzeň
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Rokycany
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
54′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–41–15
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 43–42–15
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Petřín Plzeň win 40%)
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Petřín Plzeň
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Rokycany
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Rokycany
64′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–2
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–2
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Petřín Plzeň
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Rokycany
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Petřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Petřín Plzeň win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Petřín Plzeň
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Rokycany
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 31% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Petřín Plzeň win 31%)
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Petřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 88% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Petřín Plzeň win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Petřín Plzeň
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Rokycany
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 29% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Petřín Plzeň win 29%)
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Petřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 89% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Petřín Plzeň win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
74′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
76′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
81′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–76–7 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Petřín Plzeň win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
83′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–6 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
84′We said Petřín Plzeň at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Petřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany
FTPetřín Plzeň 2–1 Rokycany · Petřín Plzeň win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petřín Plzeň are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petřín Plzeň 64%, draw 21%, Rokycany 15%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Petřín Plzeň v RokycanyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Petřín Plzeň win64%

Draw21%

Rokycany win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

VenueSK Petrin Pilsen - grass

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petřín Plzeň

Rokycany

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Petřín Plzeň	10	+11	22
11	Rokycany	9	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petřín plzeň winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Petřín Plzeň a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Petřín Plzeň v Rokycany~~2.07 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 10~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Petřín Plzeň win

Published at 62%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petřín Plzeň win	64%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Rokycany win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Petřín Plzeň or draw	85%	–	–
Petřín Plzeň clean sheet	42%	–	–
Rokycany clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 4.5 2.2 1 10.7 9.6 4.2 2 11.0 9.4 4.2 3 7.6 6.4 2.8 4 4.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petřín Plzeň down, Rokycany across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 4. liga - Divizie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petřín Plzeň at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rokycany away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Petřín Plzeň, 0.88 for Rokycany. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ROK 2–3 PET · PET 1–0 ROK · ROK 4–1 PET · PET 2–0 ROK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 29 Aug

PETŘÍN PLZEŇ

WWLWWW3–0 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 4–0 · 4–3 · 4–1

ROKYCANY

WLLLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spartak Pribram	10	+19	23
2	Petřín Plzeň	10	+11	22
3	Křimice	10	+8	22
4	Hluboka nad Vltavou	10	+8	19
5	Komárov	9	+8	19
6	Hořovicko	10	+4	17
7	Spartak Soběslav	9	+6	16
8	Táborsko II	9	+5	15
9	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	−6	12
10	Doubravka	10	−2	11
11	Rokycany	9	−8	10
12	Strakonice	9	−8	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	9	−13	3
14	Nyrsko	9	−21	3
15	Milevsko	9	−11	2