Milevsko v Doubravka prediction · 4. liga - Divizie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka DOUBRAVKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Doubravka win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Doubravka win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Doubravka was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–23–39
2′KICK-OFF Milevsko v Doubravka
22′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
23′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 16–20–65
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–20–65
45′HALF-TIME Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Doubravka
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 34% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
46′SECOND HALF Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Doubravka
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
52′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
60′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–44–29 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
65′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
73′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
79′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
84′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–1 · 1–9–91
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Doubravka win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
90′We published Doubravka at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Milevsko 0–1 Doubravka
FTMilevsko 0–1 Doubravka · Doubravka win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Doubravka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Milevsko 37%, draw 23%, Doubravka 40%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Milevsko v DoubravkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Milevsko win37%

Draw23%

Doubravka win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Milevsko

Doubravka

15Days since last match8

Last match: 3 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Doubravka	10	−2	11
15	Milevsko	9	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doubravka winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Doubravka a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Milevsko v Doubravka~~1.66 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 2 v 11~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milevsko win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Doubravka win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Milevsko or draw	60%	–	–
Milevsko clean sheet	18%	–	–
Doubravka clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.7 5.1 2.9 1 5.5 9.9 8.1 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.9 6.7 3.8 3 2.6 4.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milevsko down, Doubravka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,275 4. liga - Divizie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Milevsko at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Doubravka away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Milevsko, 1.72 for Doubravka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DOU 1–2 MIL · MIL 2–2 DOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 30 Aug

MILEVSKO

LLLDLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

DOUBRAVKA

LLWLLD0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petřín Plzeň	11	+12	25
2	Spartak Pribram	10	+19	23
3	Křimice	11	+8	23
4	Hořovicko	11	+5	20
5	Hluboka nad Vltavou	10	+8	19
6	Komárov	10	+7	19
7	Spartak Soběslav	10	+6	17
8	Táborsko II	10	+5	16
9	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	−6	12
10	Doubravka	10	−2	11
11	Rokycany	10	−9	10
12	Strakonice	10	−14	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	10	−7	6
14	Nyrsko	10	−21	4
15	Milevsko	9	−11	2