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Komárov v Petřín Plzeň

Komárov

4–0Full time

Petřín Plzeň

4. liga - Divizie A · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Komárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň PETŘÍN PLZEŇ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Petřín Plzeň win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.680

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petřín Plzeň win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Petřín Plzeň was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Komárov v Petřín Plzeň
10′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 58–21–21
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Komárov 1–0 Petřín Plzeň
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Komárov win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Petřín Plzeň win 42%)
20′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 61–22–17
39′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Komárov 1–0 Petřín Plzeň
46′SECOND HALF Komárov 1–0 Petřín Plzeň
55′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
55′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Komárov 2–0 Petřín Plzeň
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
68′We said Petřín Plzeň at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 22–53–26
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Komárov
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 26% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Komárov win 95%)
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Komárov 2–0 Petřín Plzeň
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Komárov win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 53%)
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Komárov 3–0 Petřín Plzeň
73′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Komárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Komárov
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Komárov win over 99%)
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Komárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, under 1% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Komárov win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 64%)
85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' Komárov
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Komárov win over 99%)
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Komárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Petřín Plzeň win: 43% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Komárov win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 83%)
FTFULL TIME Komárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň
FTKomárov 4–0 Petřín Plzeň · Petřín Plzeň win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petřín Plzeň are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Komárov 34%, draw 23%, Petřín Plzeň 43%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Komárov v Petřín PlzeňBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Komárov win34%

Draw23%

Petřín Plzeň win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Komárov

Petřín Plzeň

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petřín plzeň winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Petřín Plzeň a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Komárov v Petřín Plzeň~~1.52 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 25~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Komárov win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Petřín Plzeň win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Komárov or draw	57%	–	–
Komárov clean sheet	18%	–	–
Petřín Plzeň clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.4 6.7 5.9 3.4 1 5.7 10.2 8.5 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.5 6.4 3.7 3 2.3 3.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Komárov down, Petřín Plzeň across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,276 4. liga - Divizie A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.7% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Komárov at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Petřín Plzeň away: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Komárov, 1.74 for Petřín Plzeň. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PET 2–3 KOM · PET 1–0 KOM · KOM 1–0 PET · PET 0–0 KOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 5 Sept

KOMÁROV

WDDWWL2–0 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

PETŘÍN PLZEŇ

WLWWWW4–2 · 1–4 · 4–0 · 4–3 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petřín Plzeň	11	+12	25
2	Spartak Pribram	10	+19	23
3	Křimice	11	+8	23
4	Hořovicko	11	+5	20
5	Hluboka nad Vltavou	10	+8	19
6	Komárov	10	+7	19
7	Spartak Soběslav	10	+6	17
8	Táborsko II	10	+5	16
9	Doubravka	11	−1	14
10	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	−6	12
11	Rokycany	10	−9	10
12	Strakonice	10	−14	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	10	−7	6
14	Nyrsko	10	−21	4
15	Milevsko	10	−12	2