Hořovicko v Komárov prediction · 4. liga - Divizie A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Hořovicko 1–0 Komárov HOŘOVICKO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hořovicko win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hořovicko win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hořovicko 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
1′KICK-OFF Hořovicko v Komárov
37′Little has changed for our model: Hořovicko 38% before kick-off, 33% now. 0–0 · 33–35–32
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Hořovicko win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Hořovicko 0–0 Komárov
46′SECOND HALF Hořovicko 0–0 Komárov
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–44–27
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Hořovicko win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said Hořovicko at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–25
64′We said Hořovicko at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
72′We said Hořovicko at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
74′We said Hořovicko at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Hořovicko win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hořovicko 1–0 Komárov
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Hořovicko win: 38% at kick-off, 82% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Hořovicko win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
77′We said Hořovicko at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Hořovicko win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Hořovicko at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
89′We said Hořovicko at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′We said Hořovicko at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–94–3
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Hořovicko win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Hořovicko 1–0 Komárov
FTHořovicko 1–0 Komárov · Hořovicko win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hořovicko just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hořovicko 38%, draw 26%, Komárov 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hořovicko v KomárovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hořovicko win38%

Draw26%

Komárov win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hořovicko

Komárov

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Komárov	9	+8	19
6	Hořovicko	10	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hořovicko winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Hořovicko a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hořovicko v Komárov~~1.43 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hořovicko win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Komárov win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Hořovicko or draw	64%	–	–
Hořovicko clean sheet	25%	–	–
Komárov clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 8.0 5.8 2.7 1 8.2 12.0 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.2 5.7 2.7 3 2.9 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hořovicko down, Komárov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 4. liga - Divizie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hořovicko at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Komárov away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Hořovicko, 1.39 for Komárov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KOM 1–1 HOR · HOR 0–1 KOM · HOR 2–4 KOM · KOM 2–0 HOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 2 Sept

HOŘOVICKO

WLWDWL3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

KOMÁROV

WWDDWW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petřín Plzeň	11	+12	25
2	Spartak Pribram	10	+19	23
3	Křimice	11	+8	23
4	Hluboka nad Vltavou	10	+8	19
5	Komárov	9	+8	19
6	Hořovicko	10	+4	17
7	Spartak Soběslav	9	+6	16
8	Táborsko II	10	+5	16
9	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	−6	12
10	Doubravka	10	−2	11
11	Rokycany	10	−9	10
12	Strakonice	9	−8	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	9	−13	3
14	Nyrsko	9	−21	3
15	Milevsko	9	−11	2