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Hluboka nad Vltavou v Spartak Pribram

Hluboka nad Vltavou

1–3Full time

Spartak Pribram

4. liga - Divizie A · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01

Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–3 Spartak Pribram HLUBOKA NAD VLTAVOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hluboka nad Vltavou win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.645

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hluboka nad Vltavou win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hluboka nad Vltavou was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
1′KICK-OFF Hluboka nad Vltavou v Spartak Pribram
11′We said Hluboka nad Vltavou at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–20–58
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Hluboka nad Vltavou 0–1 Spartak Pribram
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Spartak Pribram win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Hluboka nad Vltavou win 22%)
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Spartak Pribram
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Hluboka nad Vltavou win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Spartak Pribram win 35%)
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hluboka nad Vltavou 0–1 Spartak Pribram
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Spartak Pribram win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Hluboka nad Vltavou win 21%)
22′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' Spartak Pribram
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Hluboka nad Vltavou win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Spartak Pribram win 34%)
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Hluboka nad Vltavou 0–1 Spartak Pribram
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Spartak Pribram win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Hluboka nad Vltavou win 20%)
23′We said Hluboka nad Vltavou at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–59
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–1 Spartak Pribram
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Hluboka nad Vltavou win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Spartak Pribram win 34%)
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–2 Spartak Pribram
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Spartak Pribram win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Hluboka nad Vltavou win 16%)
43′We said Hluboka nad Vltavou at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–23–63
45′HALF-TIME Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–2 Spartak Pribram
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
46′SECOND HALF Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–2 Spartak Pribram
58′We said Hluboka nad Vltavou at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
63′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–2 · 8–22–70
72′We said Hluboka nad Vltavou at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Hluboka nad Vltavou win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
83′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–3 Spartak Pribram
FTFULL TIME Hluboka nad Vltavou 1–3 Spartak Pribram
FTHluboka nad Vltavou 1–3 Spartak Pribram · Hluboka nad Vltavou win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hluboka nad Vltavou are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hluboka nad Vltavou 43%, draw 22%, Spartak Pribram 36%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Hluboka nad Vltavou v Spartak PribramBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Hluboka nad Vltavou win43%

Draw22%

Spartak Pribram win36%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hluboka nad Vltavou

Spartak Pribram

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Pribram	9	+17	20
4	Hluboka nad Vltavou	9	+10	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hluboka nad vltavou winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Hluboka nad Vltavou a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hluboka nad Vltavou v Spartak Pribram~~1.96 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 20~~4 v 3

~~The market · Hluboka nad Vltavou win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hluboka nad Vltavou win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hluboka nad Vltavou win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Spartak Pribram win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	63%	+8
Both teams to score	70%	65%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	79%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	51%	44%	+7
Hluboka nad Vltavou or draw	64%	67%	−3
Hluboka nad Vltavou clean sheet	18%	–	–
Spartak Pribram clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.0 4.3 3.9 2.3 1 4.7 8.5 7.2 4.2 2 4.7 7.8 6.8 4.0 3 3.0 5.1 4.4 2.6 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hluboka nad Vltavou down, Spartak Pribram across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,269 4. liga - Divizie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hluboka nad Vltavou at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Pribram away: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Hluboka nad Vltavou, 1.77 for Spartak Pribram. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie A this season · since 4 Sept

HLUBOKA NAD VLTAVOU

DWDWDW2–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

SPARTAK PRIBRAM

WDWDLW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petřín Plzeň	10	+11	22
2	Křimice	10	+8	22
3	Spartak Pribram	9	+17	20
4	Hluboka nad Vltavou	9	+10	19
5	Komárov	9	+8	19
6	Hořovicko	10	+4	17
7	Spartak Soběslav	9	+6	16
8	Táborsko II	9	+5	15
9	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	−6	12
10	Doubravka	10	−2	11
11	Rokycany	9	−8	10
12	Strakonice	9	−8	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	9	−13	3
14	Nyrsko	9	−21	3
15	Milevsko	9	−11	2