Zlín II v Hranice prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Zlín II 0–1 Hranice ZLÍN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zlín II win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zlín II win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zlín II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Zlín II v Hranice
23′Much as we predicted: Zlín II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
45′HALF-TIME Zlín II 0–0 Hranice
46′SECOND HALF Zlín II 0–0 Hranice
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Zlín II
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hranice · On: V. Vozak · Off: M. Hanzelka
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hranice · On: F. Munn · Off: M. Machalek Corrected
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Zlín II 0–1 Hranice
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Hranice
90′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Hranice
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Hranice
FTFULL TIME Zlín II 0–1 Hranice
FTZlín II 0–1 Hranice · Zlín II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Zlín II win47%

Draw24%

Hranice win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:30

VenueStadion Letna

Line-ups

Zlín II

Hranice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zlín II

Hranice

7Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
12	Zlín II	11	−3	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zlín II

Formation not confirmed

4 D. Hubacek

5 P. Mbatshi

10 M. Brazda

13 F. Dornak

14 M. Tesar

15 P. Emmanuel

18 J. Neveril

19 M. Tomastik

21 D. Grygera

23 T. Ulbrich

64 S. Bachurek

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Kanok

7 · M. Toure

8 · F. Hellebrand

11 · M. Pacik

16 · J. Pastyrik

20 · S. Prucha

29 · R. Hvozdensky

Hranice

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Tomecka

6 R. Kundrat

7 M. Hanzelka

9 M. Machalek

14 A. Podesva

16 D. Kolacek

17 M. Zednicek

18 J. Coufal

19 V. Lasak

21 S. Studeny

23 M. Vymetalik

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · F. McMunn

10 · A. Jasensky

11 · J. Kiska

20 · J. Michalik

22 · V. Vozak

24 · A. Kudela

Our number · zlín ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:34

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Zlín II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zlín ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zlín II win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Hranice win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Zlín II or draw	71%	70%	+1
Zlín II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Hranice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 6.6 4.2 1 8.8 11.0 6.9 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zlín II down, Hranice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,614 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zlín II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hranice away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Zlín II, 1.27 for Hranice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HRA 3–2 ZLI · ZLI 2–2 HRA · ZLI 4–0 HRA · HRA 2–2 ZLI

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

ZLÍN II

DWLLLW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–0

HRANICE

LWWDWD1–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uničov	12	+12	26
2	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Hodonín	12	+4	17
8	Vítkovice	12	−1	16
9	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
10	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
11	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
12	Zlín II	11	−3	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5