Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. liga - MSFL › Zbrojovka Brno II v Zlín II

Back
Czech Republic flag

Zbrojovka Brno II v Zlín II

Zbrojovka Brno II
4–2Full time
Zlín II

3. liga - MSFL · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06
Zbrojovka Brno II 4–2 Zlín II ZBROJOVKA BRNO II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zbrojovka Brno II win59%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.250
The market’s Brier score0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zbrojovka Brno II win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zbrojovka Brno II 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zbrojovka Brno II v Zlín II
  4. 17′Zbrojovka Brno II find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
  5. 17′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Zbrojovka Brno II 1–0 Zlín II
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Zbrojovka Brno II
  9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 56% now
  10. 33′Zbrojovka Brno II find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  11. 33′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  12. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Zbrojovka Brno II 1–0 Zlín II
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 78% now
  14. 34′A goal for Zbrojovka Brno II on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
  15. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
  16. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Zbrojovka Brno II 2–0 Zlín II
  17. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 93% now
  18. 35′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Zbrojovka Brno II 2–0 Zlín II
  20. 46′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Zbrojovka Brno II 2–0 Zlín II
  22. 54′Zbrojovka Brno II score on 54′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  23. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Zbrojovka Brno II 3–0 Zlín II
  24. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 55′Zlín II find the net on 55′. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
  26. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Zbrojovka Brno II 3–1 Zlín II
  27. 56′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–4–1
  28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: B. Vit · Off: O. Slapansky
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: R. Ferlay · Off: L. Toman
  30. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zlín II · On: M. Toure · Off: T. Fojtu Corrected
  31. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zlín II · On: R. Hvozdensky · Off: Z. Katalinic Corrected
  32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zlín II · On: M. Pacik · Off: P. Emmanuel Corrected
  33. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Zlín II
  34. 80′A goal for Zlín II on 80′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  35. 80′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  36. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zbrojovka Brno II 3–2 Zlín II
  37. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
  38. 81′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 90–9–1
  39. 86′M. Toure scores for Zlín II on 79′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Zlín II · On: S. Prucha · Off: J. Neveril Corrected
  41. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Zlín II · On: F. Hellebrand · Off: F. Dornak Corrected
  42. 89′Zbrojovka Brno II score on 89′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  43. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Zbrojovka Brno II 4–2 Zlín II
  44. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
  45. 90′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  46. 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  47. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: V. Posvar · Off: M. Soucek
  48. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: O. Adametz · Off: S. Konecny
  49. FTFULL TIME Zbrojovka Brno II 4–2 Zlín II
  50. FTZbrojovka Brno II 4–2 Zlín II · Zbrojovka Brno II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zbrojovka Brno II 59%, draw 20%, Zlín II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Zbrojovka Brno II v Zlín IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno II win59%
Draw20%
Zlín II win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno II

Zlín II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zbrojovka Brno II

Zlín II

5Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Zbrojovka Brno II12+824
12Zlín II12−415

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno II

Formation not confirmed

5 J. Texl

7 O. Pragr

8 V. Smid

9 M. Soucek

11 D. Strnad

13 O. Slapansky

16 S. Konecny

21 P. Zitny

23 D. Granecny

24 L. Toman

30 M. Hrazdira

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · B. Vit

6 · R. Ferlay

22 · L. Kriz

25 · O. Adametz

27 · V. Posvar

29 · D. Jelinek

Zlín II

Formation not confirmed

4 D. Hubacek

5 Z. Katalinic

10 M. Brazda

13 F. Dornak

14 M. Tesar

15 P. Emmanuel

18 J. Neveril

19 M. Tomastik

23 S. Petruta

37 T. Fojtu

64 S. Bachurek

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Kanok

7 · M. Toure

8 · F. Hellebrand

11 · M. Pacik

16 · J. Pastyrik

20 · S. Prucha

29 · R. Hvozdensky

Our number · zbrojovka brno ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
59% The market61%
Us59%
Market61%

We make Zbrojovka Brno II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zbrojovka Brno II v Zlín II2.27 – 1.29
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 6 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 24 v 153 v 12
The market · Zbrojovka Brno II win61% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 08:38
Our probability · Zbrojovka Brno II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zbrojovka Brno II win59%61%−2
Draw20%21%−1
Zlín II win21%18%+3
Over 2.5 goals68%63%+5
Both teams to score64%59%+5
Over 1.5 goals86%83%+3
Over 3.5 goals47%42%+5
Zbrojovka Brno II or draw79%82%−3
Zbrojovka Brno II clean sheet28%––
Zlín II clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.0 3.9 2.5 1 6.7 8.3 5.3 2.3 2 7.3 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 5.5 6.9 4.4 4 3.2 4.0 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zbrojovka Brno II down, Zlín II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsZLI 2–1 ZBR · ZBR 3–0 ZLI · ZBR 3–0 ZLI · ZLI 2–1 ZBR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 6 Sept

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II

WWLWDD3–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

ZLÍN II

WLLLWL4–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II13+1729
2Uničov12+1226
3Zbrojovka Brno II12+824
4Frýdek-Místek13+724
5Hranice13+723
6Sigma Olomouc II12+419
7Slovácko II13+618
8Unie Hlubina13+218
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín12+417
11Vítkovice13−216
12Zlín II12−415
13Karviná II12−214
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Blansko13−1111
16Vsetín13−1610
17Polanka nad Odrou12−69
18Havířov12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.