Vsetín v Líšeň II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Vsetín 0–1 Líšeň II LÍŠEŇ II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Líšeň II win~~51%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Líšeň II win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Líšeň II 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
1′KICK-OFF Vsetín v Líšeň II
15′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Vsetín · On: V. Bartos · Off: P. Mikus
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Vsetín
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Líšeň II win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Líšeň II
44′Líšeň II find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–17–78
44′We said Líšeň II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–1 · 5–17–78
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 5–17–78
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Vsetín 0–1 Líšeň II
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Líšeň II win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Vsetín 0–1 Líšeň II
46′SECOND HALF Vsetín 0–1 Líšeň II
52′We said Líšeň II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Líšeň II win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
69′We said Líšeň II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vsetín · On: J. Konarik · Off: J. Leckesi
78′We said Líšeň II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Líšeň II win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Líšeň II · On: T. Weber · Off: P. Sokol
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Líšeň II · On: M. Lutonsky · Off: I. Sylla
86′We said Líšeň II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vsetín · On: F. Barborak · Off: D. Jaja
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Líšeň II · On: L. Rolinek · Off: D. Toula
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Vsetín
93′🟨 YELLOW · 87' S. Gabris · Vsetín
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Líšeň II
FTFULL TIME Vsetín 0–1 Líšeň II
FTVsetín 0–1 Líšeň II · Líšeň II win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Líšeň II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vsetín 25%, draw 25%, Líšeň II 51%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Vsetín v Líšeň IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vsetín win25%

Draw25%

Líšeň II win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueFootball pitch Lhota u Vsetina

Line-ups

Vsetín

Líšeň II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vsetín

Líšeň II

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vsetín

Formation not confirmed

2 D. Dulik

6 J. Leckesi

8 A. Dobes

9 M. Zbranek

10 A. Bahounek

12 P. Mikus

13 D. Jaja

16 P. Nwachukwu

18 O. Strachon

20 S. Gabris

23 E. Slezak

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Hamza

4 · J. Moses

7 · V. Bartos

14 · F. Barborak

19 · D. Krocil

21 · J. Konarik

Líšeň II

Formation not confirmed

3 M. Jerabek

8 I. Sylla

11 V. Vukadinovic

13 P. Sokol

14 J. Prichystal

15 D. Kolaric

18 D. Toula

19 D. Kana

21 M. Rolinek

22 J. Fulnek

31 J. Borek

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · L. Rolinek

16 · J. Fadrny

23 · M. Lutonsky

24 · T. Sperka

26 · T. Weber

71 · M. Oros

Our number · líšeň ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make Líšeň II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vsetín v Líšeň II~~1.03 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 26~~16 v 1

~~The market · Líšeň II win~~59% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Líšeň II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vsetín win	25%	18%	+7
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Líšeň II win	51%	59%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Vsetín or draw	49%	41%	+8
Vsetín clean sheet	21%	–	–
Líšeň II clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.6 11.6 9.2 4.9 2.0 1 7.5 11.7 9.2 5.0 2.0 2 3.9 6.0 4.7 2.5 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vsetín down, Líšeň II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Vsetín at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Líšeň II away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Vsetín, 1.60 for Líšeň II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

VSETÍN

WWDLWL1–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

LÍŠEŇ II

WWDDDD2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	12	+16	26
2	Uničov	12	+12	26
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	12	+8	24
4	Hranice	13	+7	23
5	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
7	Slovácko II	12	+7	18
8	Hodonín	12	+4	17
9	Vítkovice	13	−2	16
10	Unie Hlubina	12	+1	15
11	Uherský Brod	12	−4	15
12	Zlín II	12	−4	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8