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Vrchovina v Uničov

Vrchovina

0–4Full time

Uničov

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadium Nove Mesto

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Vrchovina 0–4 Uničov UNIČOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uničov win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.398

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uničov win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Uničov was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 33–24–43
1′KICK-OFF Vrchovina v Uničov
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Vrchovina 0–1 Uničov
23′18′ and it is 0–1: P. Duda on the scoresheet for Uničov. 0–1 · 12–19–69
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Vrchovina 0–2 Uničov
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Vrchovina
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Vrchovina
43′Uničov ahead on 28′ through J. Ambrozek. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Vrchovina 0–2 Uničov
49′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vrchovina · On: T. Duba · Off: M. Voprsal
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vrchovina · On: D. Bouchner · Off: D. Baca
49′SECOND HALF Vrchovina 0–2 Uničov
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
71′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Uničov · On: D. Grecmal · Off: J. Vichta
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vrchovina · On: P. Sytar · Off: M. Jicha
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Vrchovina
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Vrchovina 0–3 Uničov
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Vrchovina
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vrchovina 0–4 Uničov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Uničov · On: V. Werani · Off: M. Hausknecht
FTFULL TIME Vrchovina 0–4 Uničov
FTVrchovina 0–4 Uničov · Uničov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vrchovina win33%

Draw24%

Uničov win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadium Nove Mesto

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vrchovina

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Smida

3 D. Baca

6 M. Voprsal

7 F. Necas

10 P. Stocek

14 M. Jicha

16 T. Franek

17 M. Pulkrabek

18 J. Novotny

19 K. Hudak

21 P. Duda

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · M. Dvorak

8 · P. Sytar

9 · D. Bouchner

12 · T. Sadecky

15 · T. Duba

29 · J. Micka

Uničov

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Vanak

3 J. Sanak

4 V. Spatenka

5 M. Beran

7 M. Hausknecht

8 J. Ambrozek

9 J. Vichta

10 T. Komenda

11 M. Vybiral

12 A. Cerven

24 V. Koutny

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · V. Werani

16 · M. Ptacnik

15 · J. Suchanek

14 · D. Grecmal

72 · J. Kvapil

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vrchovina

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Smida

3 D. Baca

6 M. Voprsal

7 F. Necas

10 P. Stocek

14 M. Jicha

16 T. Franek

17 M. Pulkrabek

18 J. Novotny

19 K. Hudak

21 P. Duda

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · M. Dvorak

8 · P. Sytar

9 · D. Bouchner

12 · T. Sadecky

15 · T. Duba

29 · J. Micka

Uničov

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Vanak

3 J. Sanak

4 V. Spatenka

5 M. Beran

7 M. Hausknecht

8 J. Ambrozek

9 J. Vichta

10 T. Komenda

11 M. Vybiral

12 A. Cerven

24 V. Koutny

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · V. Werani

16 · M. Ptacnik

15 · J. Suchanek

14 · D. Grecmal

72 · J. Kvapil

Our number · uničov winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make Uničov a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · uničov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vrchovina win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Uničov win	43%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−2
Vrchovina or draw	57%	51%	+5
Vrchovina clean sheet	20%	–	–
Uničov clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.6 1 6.9 11.0 8.8 4.8 2 4.8 7.5 6.0 3.3 3 2.2 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vrchovina down, Uničov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,610 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vrchovina at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Uničov away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Vrchovina, 1.63 for Uničov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VRC 0–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 VRC · UNI 1–0 VRC · VRC 2–0 UNI

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

VRCHOVINA

LLLDWL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–4

UNIČOV

LDDWWW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
3	Uničov	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	11	+9	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Vítkovice	11	+3	16
8	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
9	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
10	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
11	Zlín II	11	−3	15
12	Hodonín	11	+1	14
13	Vrchovina	11	−7	14
14	Karviná II	11	−6	11
15	Vsetín	11	−13	10
16	Blansko	11	−12	8
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5