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Model 1.2

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Vrchovina v Havířov

Vrchovina
2–0Full time
Havířov

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 24 OCT · Stadium Nove Mesto

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Vrchovina 2–0 Havířov VRCHOVINA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vrchovina win47%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.422
The market’s Brier score0.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vrchovina win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vrchovina was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vrchovina v Havířov
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Vrchovina
  5. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Havířov
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Vrchovina 0–0 Havířov
  7. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Vrchovina win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Vrchovina 0–0 Havířov
  9. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Havířov
  10. 51′We said Vrchovina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–24
  11. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Vrchovina win 37%)
  12. 54′We said Vrchovina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
  13. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  14. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Vrchovina
  15. 63′We said Vrchovina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
  16. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Havířov · On: D. Macej · Off: P. Srek
  17. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Vrchovina win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Havířov · On: S. Hrabec · Off: L. Matusinsky
  19. 71′We said Vrchovina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  20. 73′Vrchovina score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  21. 73′We published Vrchovina at 47%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  22. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vrchovina · On: T. Duba · Off: P. Stocek
  23. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Vrchovina 1–0 Havířov
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Vrchovina win: 47% at kick-off, 84% now
  25. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Vrchovina win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 62%)
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vrchovina · On: T. Franek · Off: M. Jicha
  27. 75′We published Vrchovina at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  28. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Vrchovina
  29. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Vrchovina win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  30. 81′We published Vrchovina at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  31. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vrchovina · On: P. Sytar · Off: D. Holec
  32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vrchovina · On: K. Hudak · Off: D. Bouchner
  33. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Vrchovina
  34. 84′Vrchovina find the net on 83′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 84′We published Vrchovina at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Havířov · On: P. Zdunek · Off: Cadu
  37. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Vrchovina 2–0 Havířov
  38. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Vrchovina win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Vrchovina · On: M. Voprsal · Off: F. Necas
  40. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Vrchovina
  41. FTFULL TIME Vrchovina 2–0 Havířov
  42. FTVrchovina 2–0 Havířov · Vrchovina win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vrchovina are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vrchovina 47%, draw 24%, Havířov 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Vrchovina v HavířovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vrchovina win47%
Draw24%
Havířov win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 13

VenueStadium Nove Mesto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vrchovina

Havířov

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Havířov13−911

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vrchovina winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
47% The market42%
Us47%
Market42%

We make Vrchovina a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vrchovina v Havířov1.68 – 1.26
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 14 v 1114 v 15
The market · Vrchovina win42% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:49
Our probability · Vrchovina win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vrchovina win47%42%+5
Draw24%25%−1
Havířov win29%33%−4
Over 2.5 goals56%59%−3
Both teams to score57%62%−5
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals34%39%−5
Vrchovina or draw71%67%+4
Vrchovina clean sheet29%––
Havířov clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.6 6.9 4.3 1 9.0 11.0 6.9 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.2 5.1 3.2 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vrchovina down, Havířov across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept

VRCHOVINA

LDWLLL0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–4

HAVÍŘOV

DDLDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II13+1729
2Uničov13+1329
3Zbrojovka Brno II13+1027
4Frýdek-Místek13+724
5Hranice13+723
6Sigma Olomouc II13+622
7Slovácko II13+618
8Unie Hlubina13+218
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín13+317
11Vítkovice13−216
12Zlín II13−615
13Karviná II13−414
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Havířov13−911
16Blansko13−1111
17Vsetín13−1610
18Polanka nad Odrou13−89

The competition's standings before kick-off.