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Vítkovice v Zbrojovka Brno II

Vítkovice
4–2Full time
Zbrojovka Brno II

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 24 OCT · Areal Vista

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Vítkovice 4–2 Zbrojovka Brno II ZBROJOVKA BRNO II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zbrojovka Brno II win42%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.665
The market’s Brier score0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zbrojovka Brno II win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zbrojovka Brno II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vítkovice v Zbrojovka Brno II
  4. 30′Zbrojovka Brno II score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
  5. 30′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
  6. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Vítkovice 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  7. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
  8. 31′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–68
  9. 35′Vítkovice find the net on 34′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–32–37
  10. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Vítkovice 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  11. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
  12. 39′A goal for Vítkovice on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 64–23–13
  13. 39′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 64–23–13
  14. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Vítkovice 2–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
  16. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Vítkovice win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zbrojovka Brno II win 36%)
  17. 42′Vítkovice score on 42′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 87–9–3
  18. 42′We said Zbrojovka Brno II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 3–1 · 87–9–3
  19. 42′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 87–9–3
  20. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Vítkovice 3–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  21. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Vítkovice 3–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Vítkovice 3–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  24. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Zbrojovka Brno II win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  25. 83′Vítkovice find the net on 82′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 83′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Vítkovice 4–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
  28. 86′A goal for Zbrojovka Brno II on 86′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  29. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vítkovice 4–2 Zbrojovka Brno II
  30. 87′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Vítkovice 4–2 Zbrojovka Brno II
  32. FTVítkovice 4–2 Zbrojovka Brno II · Zbrojovka Brno II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vítkovice 34%, draw 23%, Zbrojovka Brno II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Vítkovice v Zbrojovka Brno IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vítkovice win34%
Draw23%
Zbrojovka Brno II win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 13

VenueAreal Vista

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vítkovice

Zbrojovka Brno II

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Zbrojovka Brno II13+1027
11Vítkovice13−216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zbrojovka brno ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market42%
Us42%
Market42%

We make Zbrojovka Brno II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vítkovice v Zbrojovka Brno II1.46 – 1.65
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 16 v 2711 v 3
The market · Zbrojovka Brno II win42% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:49
Our probability · Zbrojovka Brno II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vítkovice win34%32%+2
Draw23%26%−3
Zbrojovka Brno II win42%42%0
Over 2.5 goals60%56%+4
Both teams to score61%60%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals38%35%+3
Vítkovice or draw58%58%0
Vítkovice clean sheet20%––
Zbrojovka Brno II clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 4.6 7.5 6.1 3.4 1 6.6 10.6 8.6 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 7.7 6.3 3.5 3 2.4 3.8 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vítkovice down, Zbrojovka Brno II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsZBR 4–1 VIT · VIT 2–1 ZBR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept

VÍTKOVICE

DDWLLL0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II

WLWDDW3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II13+1729
2Uničov13+1329
3Zbrojovka Brno II13+1027
4Frýdek-Místek13+724
5Hranice13+723
6Sigma Olomouc II13+622
7Slovácko II13+618
8Unie Hlubina13+218
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín13+317
11Vítkovice13−216
12Zlín II13−615
13Karviná II13−414
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Havířov13−911
16Blansko13−1111
17Vsetín13−1610
18Polanka nad Odrou13−89

The competition's standings before kick-off.