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Vítkovice v Karviná II

Vítkovice

0–4Full time

Karviná II

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 10 OCT · Areal Vista

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Vítkovice 0–4 Karviná II VÍTKOVICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vítkovice win~~51%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.049

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vítkovice win at 51%.
5′KICK-OFF Vítkovice v Karviná II
7′Little has changed for our model: Vítkovice 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Karviná II
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Vítkovice
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Vítkovice
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vítkovice win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Vítkovice
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Vítkovice 0–1 Karviná II
45′HALF-TIME Vítkovice 0–1 Karviná II
47′Karviná II find the net on 47′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–86
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vítkovice 0–2 Karviná II
47′SECOND HALF Vítkovice 0–2 Karviná II
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Vítkovice win: 51% at kick-off, 3% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Karviná II win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Vítkovice win 3%)
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vítkovice 0–2 Karviná II · I. Aldin
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vítkovice · On: M. Klauco · Off: O. Kamara
54′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vítkovice 0–2 Karviná II · I. Aldin
68′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Karviná II
71′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Vítkovice · On: J. Drozd · Off: M. Malek
71′🟨 YELLOW · 64' O. Strnadel · Karviná II
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Vítkovice 0–3 Karviná II
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vítkovice · On: M. Hloch · Off: J. Graclik
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Karviná II · On: A. Griger · Off: F. Konate
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Karviná II · On: E. Backman · Off: M. Kucak
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Vítkovice 0–4 Karviná II
80′⚽ GOAL · 78' Vítkovice 0–4 Karviná II
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Karviná II
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Karviná II · On: V. Wrana · Off: M. Sikora
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Karviná II
FTFULL TIME Vítkovice 0–4 Karviná II
FTVítkovice 0–4 Karviná II · Vítkovice win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vítkovice win51%

Draw23%

Karviná II win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Areal Vista

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vítkovice

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Keller

2 J. Galik

3 O. Kamara

7 M. Svach

9 M. Malek

10 P. Jurasek

12 J. Jonathan

14 T. Nieslanik

18 H. Homann

27 J. Graclik

33 P. Honig

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · J. Drozd

11 · N. Kuzmanovic

15 · M. Klauco

16 · M. Hloch

19 · D. Zajac

20 · M. Mechl

30 · T. Soucek

Karviná II

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Schovanec

4 O. Drobek

7 O. Strnadel

8 M. Kucak

9 D. Motycka

10 D. Penuel

13 M. Sikora

18 R. Fukala

19 P. Szostek

21 M. Avah

55 F. Konate

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · J. Bujdak

6 · E. Backman

11 · A. Griger

14 · I. Aldin

17 · V. Valosek

32 · R. Kozik

33 · V. Wrana

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vítkovice

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Keller

2 J. Galik

3 O. Kamara

7 M. Svach

9 M. Malek

10 P. Jurasek

12 J. Jonathan

14 T. Nieslanik

18 H. Homann

27 J. Graclik

33 P. Honig

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · J. Drozd

11 · N. Kuzmanovic

15 · M. Klauco

16 · M. Hloch

19 · D. Zajac

20 · M. Mechl

30 · T. Soucek

Karviná II

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Schovanec

4 O. Drobek

7 O. Strnadel

8 M. Kucak

9 D. Motycka

10 D. Penuel

13 M. Sikora

18 R. Fukala

19 P. Szostek

21 M. Avah

55 F. Konate

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · J. Bujdak

6 · E. Backman

11 · A. Griger

14 · I. Aldin

17 · V. Valosek

32 · R. Kozik

33 · V. Wrana

Our number · vítkovice winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make Vítkovice a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vítkovice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vítkovice win	51%	59%	−8
Draw	23%	22%	+2
Karviná II win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Vítkovice or draw	75%	81%	−6
Vítkovice clean sheet	32%	–	–
Karviná II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 6.3 3.7 1 9.6 10.9 6.3 2.5 2 8.3 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.9 5.5 3.2 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vítkovice down, Karviná II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,610 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vítkovice at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karviná II away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Vítkovice, 1.15 for Karviná II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–1 VIT · VIT 2–1 KAR

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

VÍTKOVICE

WWDDWL3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

KARVINÁ II

LWLLDL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
3	Uničov	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	11	+9	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Vítkovice	11	+3	16
8	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
9	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
10	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
11	Zlín II	11	−3	15
12	Hodonín	11	+1	14
13	Vrchovina	11	−7	14
14	Karviná II	11	−6	11
15	Vsetín	11	−13	10
16	Blansko	11	−12	8
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5