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Uničov v Hodonín

Uničov
3–2Full time
Hodonín

3. liga - MSFL · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06
Uničov 3–2 Hodonín UNIČOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uničov win43%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.492
The market’s Brier score0.425

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uničov win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Uničov was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Uničov v Hodonín
  4. 5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Hodonín
  5. 23′Uničov score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Uničov 1–0 Hodonín
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 24′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
  9. 26′24′: A. Cerven on the scoresheet for Uničov, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  11. 31′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
  12. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Hodonín
  13. 39′Uničov find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  14. 39′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  15. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Uničov 2–0 Hodonín
  16. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
  17. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Uničov
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Uničov 2–1 Hodonín
  19. 46′A goal for Hodonín on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–20–8
  20. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Uničov 2–1 Hodonín
  21. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Uničov 2–1 Hodonín
  23. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 72–20–8
  24. 53′Hodonín score on 53′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 32–42–26
  25. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Uničov 2–2 Hodonín
  26. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 32% now
  27. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Uničov win 32%)
  28. 54′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 32–42–26
  29. 55′We said Uničov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–43–26
  30. 59′Hodonín find the net on 59′. 2–3. 2–3 · 7–22–70
  31. 59′We said Uničov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–3 · 7–22–70
  32. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Uničov 2–3 Hodonín
  33. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
  34. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Hodonín win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
  35. 60′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 7–22–71
  36. 60′We said Uničov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–47–24
  37. 60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Hodonín
  38. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 29% now
  39. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Hodonín win 24%)
  40. 69′We said Uničov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–56–20
  41. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  42. 73′Uničov find the net on 73′. 3–2. 3–2 · 83–15–2
  43. 73′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 83%. 3–2 · 83–15–2
  44. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Uničov 3–2 Hodonín
  45. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  46. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Uničov win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  47. 76′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
  48. 80′Uničov ahead on 72′ through J. Ambrozek. 3–2. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  49. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Uničov · On: D. Grecmal · Off: J. Vichta
  50. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hodonín · On: P. Svantner · Off: P. Durek
  51. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Uničov win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  52. 88′We published Uničov at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  53. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hodonín · On: M. Lamacek · Off: D. Jambor
  54. FTFULL TIME Uničov 3–2 Hodonín
  55. FTUničov 3–2 Hodonín · Uničov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uničov are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uničov 43%, draw 24%, Hodonín 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Uničov v HodonínBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uničov win43%
Draw24%
Hodonín win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

Line-ups

Uničov

Hodonín

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uničov

Hodonín

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Uničov12+1226
10Hodonín12+417

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Uničov

Formation not confirmed

4 V. Spatenka

5 M. Beran

6 J. Svoboda

7 M. Hausknecht

8 J. Ambrozek

9 J. Vichta

10 T. Komenda

11 M. Vybiral

12 A. Cerven

20 M. Vanak

24 V. Koutny

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · V. Werani

14 · D. Grecmal

15 · J. Suchanek

16 · M. Ptacnik

17 · D. Syrucek

72 · J. Kvapil

Hodonín

Formation not confirmed

2 P. Durek

6 A. Koci

8 L. Pernica

9 M. Dolnik

10 T. Jager

11 A. Dunda

14 P. Bohun

16 D. Jambor

17 F. Grabl

19 J. Kalabiska

20 M. Chropovsky

Coach · Pavol Svantner

Substitutes

4 · T. Vincour

7 · P. Svantner

12 · M. Novotny

15 · V. Perina

18 · P. Sehnal

22 · M. Lamacek

1 · T. Odraska

Our number · uničov winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market47%
Us43%
Market47%

We make Uničov a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Uničov v Hodonín1.59 – 1.36
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 26 v 172 v 10
The market · Uničov win47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 08:38
Our probability · Uničov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Uničov win43%47%−4
Draw24%25%−1
Hodonín win33%28%+5
Over 2.5 goals56%56%0
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals34%35%−1
Uničov or draw67%72%−5
Uničov clean sheet26%––
Hodonín clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.4 7.2 4.9 2.2 1 8.4 11.1 7.5 3.5 2 6.6 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.5 4.7 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Uničov down, Hodonín across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.56 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsHOD 3–1 UNI · UNI 1–2 HOD · HOD 0–2 UNI · UNI 0–0 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

UNIČOV

DDWWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 4–0

HODONÍN

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II13+1729
2Uničov12+1226
3Zbrojovka Brno II12+824
4Frýdek-Místek13+724
5Hranice13+723
6Sigma Olomouc II12+419
7Slovácko II13+618
8Unie Hlubina13+218
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín12+417
11Vítkovice13−216
12Zlín II12−415
13Karviná II12−214
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Blansko13−1111
16Vsetín13−1610
17Polanka nad Odrou12−69
18Havířov12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.