Uherský Brod v Vrchovina prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Uherský Brod 4–0 Vrchovina UHERSKÝ BROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uherský Brod win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uherský Brod win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Uherský Brod 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
1′KICK-OFF Uherský Brod v Vrchovina
10′A goal for Uherský Brod on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–16
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Uherský Brod 1–0 Vrchovina
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Uherský Brod win: 42% at kick-off, 65% now
11′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–16
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Vrchovina
19′S. Chwaszcz scores for Uherský Brod on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–15
27′Uherský Brod score on 27′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Uherský Brod 2–0 Vrchovina
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Uherský Brod win: 42% at kick-off, 87% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Uherský Brod
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Vrchovina
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Vrchovina
42′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 90–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Uherský Brod 2–0 Vrchovina
46′SECOND HALF Uherský Brod 2–0 Vrchovina
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vrchovina · On: J. Novotny · Off: M. Pulkrabek
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Uherský Brod win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Uherský Brod · On: M. Novotny · Off: D. Fancovic
58′Uherský Brod find the net on 57′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Uherský Brod 3–0 Vrchovina
59′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
67′A goal for Uherský Brod on 67′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Uherský Brod 4–0 Vrchovina
68′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vrchovina · On: D. Holec · Off: T. Duba
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vrchovina · On: M. Voprsal · Off: F. Necas
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vrchovina · On: P. Sytar · Off: P. Stocek
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Uherský Brod · On: D. Janco · Off: S. Chwaszcz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Uherský Brod · On: S. Kubovic · Off: D. Cervinka
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Vrchovina
79′M. Mancik scores for Uherský Brod on 67′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′We said Uherský Brod at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Uherský Brod · On: M. Fiala · Off: T. Matousek
FTFULL TIME Uherský Brod 4–0 Vrchovina
FTUherský Brod 4–0 Vrchovina · Uherský Brod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uherský Brod are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uherský Brod 42%, draw 23%, Vrchovina 35%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Uherský Brod v VrchovinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uherský Brod win42%

Draw23%

Vrchovina win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueOrelsky stadion

Line-ups

Uherský Brod

Vrchovina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uherský Brod

Vrchovina

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Uherský Brod	12	−4	15
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Uherský Brod

Formation not confirmed

5 S. Chwaszcz

6 M. Lorenc

9 T. Jelecek

10 D. Cervinka

11 M. Mancik

12 L. Hrdlicka

16 R. Matejov

17 M. Flasar

19 D. Fancovic

21 T. Matousek

73 R. Hodal

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · M. Helisek

8 · D. Janco

13 · M. Fiala

14 · M. Novotny

20 · V. Mazuryk

25 · S. Kubovic

32 · R. Hlobil

Vrchovina

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Smida

4 M. Dvorak

7 F. Necas

9 D. Bouchner

10 P. Stocek

14 M. Jicha

15 T. Duba

16 T. Franek

17 M. Pulkrabek

19 K. Hudak

21 P. Duda

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · D. Baca

6 · M. Voprsal

8 · P. Sytar

11 · D. Holec

12 · T. Sadecky

18 · J. Novotny

29 · J. Micka

Our number · uherský brod winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make Uherský Brod a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uherský Brod v Vrchovina~~1.71 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~11 v 14

~~The market · Uherský Brod win~~47% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Uherský Brod win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uherský Brod win	42%	47%	−5
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Vrchovina win	35%	27%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	63%	59%	+4
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Uherský Brod or draw	65%	73%	−8
Uherský Brod clean sheet	22%	–	–
Vrchovina clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 6.1 4.7 2.4 1 6.7 10.1 7.7 4.0 2 5.6 8.4 6.4 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uherský Brod down, Vrchovina across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uherský Brod at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vrchovina away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Uherský Brod, 1.55 for Vrchovina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VRC 1–0 UHE · UHE 1–0 VRC · UHE 3–0 VRC · VRC 0–0 UHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

UHERSKÝ BROD

DLLWDL1–1 · 1–3 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–4

VRCHOVINA

LLDWLL0–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	12	+16	26
2	Uničov	12	+12	26
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	12	+8	24
4	Hranice	13	+7	23
5	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
7	Slovácko II	12	+7	18
8	Hodonín	12	+4	17
9	Vítkovice	13	−2	16
10	Unie Hlubina	12	+1	15
11	Uherský Brod	12	−4	15
12	Zlín II	12	−4	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8