Slovácko II v Unie Hlubina prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Slovácko II 5–2 Unie Hlubina SLOVÁCKO II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovácko II win~~40%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovácko II win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Slovácko II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–37
1′KICK-OFF Slovácko II v Unie Hlubina
7′Much as we predicted: Slovácko II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Slovácko II 1–0 Unie Hlubina
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Unie Hlubina
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Slovácko II 1–1 Unie Hlubina
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Slovácko II
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Slovácko II 2–1 Unie Hlubina
45′HALF-TIME Slovácko II 2–1 Unie Hlubina
46′SECOND HALF Slovácko II 2–1 Unie Hlubina
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Slovácko II · On: T. Tichanek · Off: L. Novotny
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Slovácko II 3–1 Unie Hlubina
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Unie Hlubina · On: J. Obdrzalek · Off: N. Gancarczyk
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Unie Hlubina · On: F. Sotornik · Off: M. Vladar
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Slovácko II 4–1 Unie Hlubina
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Slovácko II 5–1 Unie Hlubina
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Unie Hlubina · On: D. Berek · Off: J. Obdrzalek Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 84' Slovácko II 5–1 Unie Hlubina · S. Olayiwola
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Unie Hlubina · On: D. Berek · Off: J. Obdrzalek Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Slovácko II 5–2 Unie Hlubina
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Unie Hlubina
FTFULL TIME Slovácko II 5–2 Unie Hlubina
FTSlovácko II 5–2 Unie Hlubina · Slovácko II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Slovácko II win40%

Draw24%

Unie Hlubina win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:15

VenueStadion Na Belince

Line-ups

Slovácko II

Unie Hlubina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Slovácko II

Unie Hlubina

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
10	Slovácko II	11	+4	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Slovácko II

Formation not confirmed

7 L. Novotny

11 M. Uhrovic

14 S. Olayiwola

15 A. Alabi

18 M. Cicha

20 Z. Pereski

21 J. Snopek

22 M. Holek

23 O. Ceesay

24 F. Hruska

31 J. Hastik

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · M. Jilek

10 · A. Markov

17 · R. Horny

19 · T. Tichanek

30 · T. Frystak

99 · O. Hastik

Unie Hlubina

Formation not confirmed

4 S. Smolka

5 Z. Celta

9 M. Vladar

10 R. Dostal

12 T. Janjus

16 D. Opatril

17 N. Gancarczyk

18 D. Skopal

22 J. Fabianek

23 O. Jurcak

25 A. Fabisz

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Preisner

11 · F. Sotornik

15 · D. Berek

19 · J. Obdrzalek

Our number · slovácko ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

40% The market54%

Us40%

~~Market~~54%

We make Slovácko II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slovácko ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovácko II win	40%	54%	−14
Draw	24%	23%	0
Unie Hlubina win	37%	23%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Slovácko II or draw	63%	77%	−14
Slovácko II clean sheet	22%	–	–
Unie Hlubina clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.7 5.1 2.7 1 6.9 10.5 8.0 4.1 2 5.5 8.3 6.4 3.3 3 3.0 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovácko II down, Unie Hlubina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,614 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovácko II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Unie Hlubina away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Slovácko II, 1.55 for Unie Hlubina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–1 SLO · SLO 1–1 UNI · SLO 0–1 UNI · UNI 1–0 SLO

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

SLOVÁCKO II

WLWDLL3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

UNIE HLUBINA

WDDDLL4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uničov	12	+12	26
2	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Hodonín	12	+4	17
8	Vítkovice	12	−1	16
9	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
10	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
11	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
12	Zlín II	11	−3	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5