Sigma Olomouc II v Karviná II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Sigma Olomouc II 3–1 Karviná II SIGMA OLOMOUC II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sigma Olomouc II win~~66%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.162

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sigma Olomouc II win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sigma Olomouc II 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–16
1′KICK-OFF Sigma Olomouc II v Karviná II
36′Sigma Olomouc II score on 36′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
36′We said Sigma Olomouc II at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sigma Olomouc II win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sigma Olomouc II 1–0 Karviná II
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Sigma Olomouc II win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
37′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sigma Olomouc II
45′HALF-TIME Sigma Olomouc II 1–0 Karviná II
46′SECOND HALF Sigma Olomouc II 1–0 Karviná II
48′Sigma Olomouc II find the net on 47′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
48′We said Sigma Olomouc II at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sigma Olomouc II 2–0 Karviná II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Sigma Olomouc II win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
50′Sigma Olomouc II ahead on 48′ through V. Kristal. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
52′A goal for Karviná II on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–3
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sigma Olomouc II 2–1 Karviná II
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sigma Olomouc II win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
55′Sigma Olomouc II score on 55′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
55′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sigma Olomouc II 3–1 Karviná II
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sigma Olomouc II win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Sigma Olomouc II
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sigma Olomouc II · On: P. Zifcak · Off: A. Proniuk
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sigma Olomouc II · On: V. Zahradnicek · Off: D. Drabek
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sigma Olomouc II · On: S. Aibe · Off: V. Kristal
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Karviná II
80′We said Sigma Olomouc II at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sigma Olomouc II · On: A. Urica · Off: F. Slavicek
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Karviná II · On: A. Griger · Off: M. Kucak
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Karviná II · On: E. Backman · Off: Y. Lawali
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sigma Olomouc II · On: S. Dikos · Off: M. Matocha
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sigma Olomouc II · On: O. Hapal · Off: J. Dembe
FTFULL TIME Sigma Olomouc II 3–1 Karviná II
FTSigma Olomouc II 3–1 Karviná II · Sigma Olomouc II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sigma Olomouc II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sigma Olomouc II 66%, draw 18%, Karviná II 15%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sigma Olomouc II v Karviná IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sigma Olomouc II win66%

Draw18%

Karviná II win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueStadium Holice

Line-ups

Sigma Olomouc II

Karviná II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sigma Olomouc II

Karviná II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sigma Olomouc II

Formation not confirmed

31 A. Pavlesic

10 A. Proniuk

11 D. Drabek

15 V. Kristal

16 F. Slavicek

17 J. Spacil

22 J. Dembe

27 M. Matocha

4 T. Huk

32 V. Benes

66 P. Siegl

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · S. Dikos

8 · A. Urica

18 · O. Hapal

21 · P. Zifcak

33 · R. Ctvrtlik

55 · S. Aibe

80 · V. Zahradnicek

Karviná II

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Schovanec

7 O. Strnadel

8 M. Kucak

9 D. Motycka

13 M. Sikora

14 Y. Lawali

18 R. Fukala

19 P. Szostek

21 M. Avah

26 J. Hamza

32 R. Kozik

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · E. Backman

10 · D. Penuel

11 · A. Griger

17 · V. Valosek

20 · S. Praleika

25 · J. Bujdak

28 · T. Bucek

Our number · sigma olomouc ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market67%

Us66%

~~Market~~67%

We make Sigma Olomouc II a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sigma Olomouc II v Karviná II~~2.36 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 14~~6 v 13

~~The market · Sigma Olomouc II win~~67% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sigma Olomouc II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sigma Olomouc II win	66%	67%	−1
Draw	18%	18%	0
Karviná II win	15%	15%	0
Over 2.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	64%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	85%	87%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Sigma Olomouc II or draw	85%	85%	0
Sigma Olomouc II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Karviná II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 3.7 1 8.2 8.2 4.2 2 9.4 9.4 4.8 3 7.3 7.3 3.7 4 4.4 4.3 2.2 5 2.1 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Sigma Olomouc II down, Karviná II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,624 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 113 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sigma Olomouc II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Karviná II away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Sigma Olomouc II, 1.03 for Karviná II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–3 SIG · SIG 2–3 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 6 Sept

SIGMA OLOMOUC II

LDWLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

KARVINÁ II

WLLDLW1–0 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	13	+17	29
2	Uničov	12	+12	26
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	12	+8	24
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	+7	24
5	Hranice	13	+7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
7	Slovácko II	13	+6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	+2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	0	18
10	Hodonín	12	+4	17
11	Vítkovice	13	−2	16
12	Zlín II	12	−4	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	13	−15	14
15	Blansko	13	−11	11
16	Vsetín	13	−16	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8