Líšeň II v Zbrojovka Brno II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Líšeň II 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno II LÍŠEŇ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Líšeň II win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.915

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Líšeň II win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Líšeň II 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Líšeň II v Zbrojovka Brno II
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Zbrojovka Brno II
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Líšeň II
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Zbrojovka Brno II
45′HALF-TIME Líšeň II 0–0 Zbrojovka Brno II
46′SECOND HALF Líšeň II 0–0 Zbrojovka Brno II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Líšeň II win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
51′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–40–24
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Líšeň II win 36%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–42–23
56′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
65′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Líšeň II
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: L. Toman · Off: M. Pachl
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Líšeň II win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
72′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
77′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Líšeň II win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
79′79′ and it is 0–1: Zbrojovka Brno II have scored. 0–1 · 2–15–83
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Líšeň II 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Líšeň II win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Zbrojovka Brno II win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
80′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: O. Adametz · Off: L. Kriz
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zbrojovka Brno II · On: M. Soucek · Off: S. Konecny
90′Líšeň II find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–91–4
90′We said Líšeň II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–91–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Líšeň II 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Zbrojovka Brno II win 4%)
FTFULL TIME Líšeň II 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno II
FTLíšeň II 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno II · Líšeň II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Líšeň II win48%

Draw23%

Zbrojovka Brno II win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadium SK Lisen

Line-ups

Líšeň II

Zbrojovka Brno II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Líšeň II

Zbrojovka Brno II

11Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Líšeň II

Formation not confirmed

39 T. Stoppen

6 V. Perisic

8 I. Sylla

11 V. Vukadinovic

13 P. Sokol

15 D. Kolaric

17 A. Petrak

18 D. Toula

21 M. Rolinek

22 J. Fulnek

5 M. Jerabek

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Jerabek

7 · L. Rolinek

14 · J. Prichystal

16 · J. Fadrny

23 · M. Lutonsky

26 · T. Weber

71 · M. Oros

Zbrojovka Brno II

Formation not confirmed

5 J. Texl

7 O. Pragr

8 V. Smid

11 D. Strnad

13 O. Slapansky

16 S. Konecny

18 M. Pachl

21 P. Zitny

22 L. Kriz

23 O. Velich

29 O. Prodelal

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · B. Vit

9 · M. Soucek

24 · L. Toman

25 · O. Adametz

27 · V. Posvar

30 · M. Hrazdira

Our number · líšeň ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Líšeň II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · líšeň ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Líšeň II win	48%	53%	−4
Draw	23%	24%	0
Zbrojovka Brno II win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−3
Líšeň II or draw	72%	77%	−5
Líšeň II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Zbrojovka Brno II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 6.4 4.0 1 8.7 10.7 6.7 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.5 3 4.4 5.3 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Líšeň II down, Zbrojovka Brno II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,618 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Líšeň II at home: 2.25 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Zbrojovka Brno II away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Líšeň II, 1.27 for Zbrojovka Brno II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in 3. liga - MSFL since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

LÍŠEŇ II

WWWDDD2–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II

WWWLWD5–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uničov	12	+12	26
2	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
5	Hranice	12	+6	20
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
7	Slovácko II	12	+7	18
8	Hodonín	12	+4	17
9	Vítkovice	12	−1	16
10	Unie Hlubina	12	+1	15
11	Uherský Brod	12	−4	15
12	Zlín II	12	−4	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8