Karviná II v Hranice prediction · 3. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Karviná IIDrawHranice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Karviná II 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karviná II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karviná II 46%, draw 24%, Hranice 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Karviná II v HraniceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Karviná II win46%

Draw24%

Hranice win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:15

RoundMSFL · matchday 13

VenueStadion Kovona

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karviná II

Hranice

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Hranice	13	+7	23
14	Karviná II	13	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karviná ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Karviná II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karviná II v Hranice~~1.66 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 23~~14 v 5

~~The market · Karviná II win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karviná II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karviná II win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Hranice win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Karviná II or draw	69%	68%	+1
Karviná II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hranice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 6.8 4.4 1 8.6 10.9 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.9 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karviná II down, Hranice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,632 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karviná II at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hranice away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Karviná II, 1.31 for Hranice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HRA 0–0 KAR · KAR 1–1 HRA · KAR 3–0 HRA · HRA 1–4 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept

KARVINÁ II

LLDLWL1–3 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–3

HRANICE

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	13	+17	29
2	Uničov	13	+13	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	+10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	+8	27
5	Hranice	13	+7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	+6	22
7	Uherský Brod	14	+1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	0	19
9	Slovácko II	13	+6	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	+2	18
11	Hodonín	14	+2	17
12	Vrchovina	14	−13	17
13	Zlín II	13	−6	15
14	Karviná II	13	−4	14
15	Havířov	14	−11	11
16	Blansko	14	−14	11
17	Vsetín	13	−16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	−8	9