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Hranice v Vítkovice

Hranice
2–1Full time
Vítkovice

3. liga - MSFL · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion SK Hranice

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31
Hranice 2–1 Vítkovice HRANICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hranice win37%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.599
The market’s Brier score0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hranice win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hranice 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hranice v Vítkovice
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Vítkovice
  5. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Hranice win 32%)
  6. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Vítkovice
  7. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Hranice
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Hranice 0–0 Vítkovice
  9. 46′HALF-TIME Hranice 0–0 Vítkovice
  10. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–47–26
  12. 55′We said Hranice at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–21–6
  13. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hranice 1–0 Vítkovice
  14. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
  15. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Hranice win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
  16. 56′A goal for Hranice on 55′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
  17. 58′We said Hranice at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  18. 61′V. Vozak scores for Hranice on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–4
  19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  20. 63′We said Hranice at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
  21. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Hranice 1–1 Vítkovice
  22. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 23% now
  23. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Hranice win 23%)
  24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vítkovice · On: D. Zajac · Off: M. Klauco
  25. 64′Vítkovice score on 63′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–55–22
  26. 64′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 23–55–22
  27. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vítkovice · On: J. Drozd · Off: J. Graclik
  28. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vítkovice · On: D. Prepsl · Off: M. Svach
  29. 66′64′: D. Zajac on the scoresheet for Vítkovice, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 22–57–21
  30. 70′We said Hranice at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–61–19
  31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hranice · On: F. McMunn · Off: V. Vozak
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hranice · On: M. Hanzelka · Off: D. Kolacek
  33. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  34. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Hranice
  35. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Hranice
  36. 77′We said Hranice at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
  37. 82′We said Hranice at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  38. 82′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  39. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hranice 2–1 Vítkovice
  40. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 90% now
  41. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Hranice win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
  42. 83′Hranice find the net on 82′. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
  43. 87′Hranice ahead on 84′ through S. Studeny. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  44. 88′We said Hranice at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  45. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vítkovice · On: M. Hloch · Off: H. Homann
  46. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vítkovice · On: L. Raab · Off: J. Jonathan
  47. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Hranice win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  48. 92′2–1 at the end. Our 37% on Hranice comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Hranice · On: J. Michalik · Off: J. Kiska
  50. FTFULL TIME Hranice 2–1 Vítkovice
  51. FTHranice 2–1 Vítkovice · Hranice win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hranice just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hranice 37%, draw 27%, Vítkovice 36%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Hranice v VítkoviceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Hranice win37%
Draw27%
Vítkovice win36%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueStadion SK Hranice

Line-ups

Hranice

Vítkovice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hranice

Vítkovice

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Hranice12+620
9Vítkovice12−116

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hranice

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Tomecka

9 M. Machalek

11 J. Kiska

14 A. Podesva

16 D. Kolacek

17 M. Zednicek

18 J. Coufal

19 V. Lasak

21 S. Studeny

22 V. Vozak

23 M. Vymetalik

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · F. McMunn

5 · T. Cap

7 · M. Hanzelka

8 · M. Pecena

10 · A. Jasensky

20 · J. Michalik

24 · A. Kudela

– · F. Zdansky

Vítkovice

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Keller

2 J. Galik

3 O. Kamara

7 T. Nieslanik

11 M. Svach

12 J. Jonathan

15 M. Klauco

18 H. Homann

21 P. Diatta

27 J. Graclik

33 P. Honig

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · J. Drozd

10 · P. Jurasek

16 · M. Hloch

19 · D. Zajac

20 · D. Prepsl

29 · L. Raab

30 · S. Magnus

Our number · hranice winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
37% The market36%
Us37%
Market36%

We make Hranice a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hranice v Vítkovice1.28 – 1.26
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 20 v 165 v 9
The market · Hranice win36% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 15:36
Our probability · Hranice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hranice win37%36%+1
Draw27%27%0
Vítkovice win36%37%−1
Over 2.5 goals47%49%−2
Both teams to score51%54%−3
Over 1.5 goals72%72%0
Over 3.5 goals25%28%−3
Hranice or draw64%63%+1
Hranice clean sheet29%––
Vítkovice clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 8.2 9.9 6.3 2.7 1 10.1 12.5 7.8 3.3 2 6.4 7.9 5.0 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hranice down, Vítkovice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsVIT 1–0 HRA · HRA 0–0 VIT · VIT 1–3 HRA · HRA 1–1 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

HRANICE

WWDWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

VÍTKOVICE

WDDWLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II12+1626
2Uničov12+1226
3Zbrojovka Brno II12+824
4Frýdek-Místek12+621
5Hranice12+620
6Sigma Olomouc II12+419
7Slovácko II12+718
8Hodonín12+417
9Vítkovice12−116
10Unie Hlubina12+115
11Uherský Brod12−415
12Zlín II12−415
13Karviná II12−214
14Vrchovina12−1114
15Blansko12−1011
16Vsetín12−1510
17Polanka nad Odrou12−69
18Havířov12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.