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Hodonín v Uherský Brod

Hodonín
1–2Full time
Uherský Brod

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion U Cervenych domku

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Hodonín 1–2 Uherský Brod HODONÍN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hodonín win62%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.073
The market’s Brier score1.033

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hodonín win at 62%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hodonín was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hodonín v Uherský Brod
  4. 31′Uherský Brod find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–26–46
  5. 31′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–26–46
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Hodonín 0–1 Uherský Brod
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Hodonín win: 62% at kick-off, 28% now
  8. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Uherský Brod win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hodonín win 54%)
  9. 32′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 27–26–46
  10. 39′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–49
  11. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Hodonín win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Hodonín 0–1 Uherský Brod
  13. 47′SECOND HALF Hodonín 0–1 Uherský Brod
  14. 49′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
  15. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hodonín · On: M. Dolnik · Off: A. Koci
  16. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hodonín · On: F. Grabl · Off: P. Svantner
  17. 58′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
  18. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hodonín win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
  19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Uherský Brod · On: V. Mazuryk · Off: M. Mancik
  20. 67′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
  21. 74′Uherský Brod score on 74′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–23–72
  22. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hodonín 1–2 Uherský Brod
  23. 76′71′: D. Cervinka on the scoresheet for Uherský Brod, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  24. 76′We said Hodonín at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hodonín · On: P. Sehnal · Off: P. Durek
  26. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Hodonín win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
  27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hodonín · On: M. Novotny · Off: T. Vincour
  28. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Uherský Brod
  29. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Uherský Brod
  30. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Hodonín · On: M. Lamacek · Off: D. Jambor
  31. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Hodonín
  32. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Uherský Brod
  33. FTFULL TIME Hodonín 1–2 Uherský Brod
  34. FTHodonín 1–2 Uherský Brod · Hodonín win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hodonín are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hodonín 62%, draw 19%, Uherský Brod 19%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Hodonín v Uherský BrodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hodonín win62%
Draw19%
Uherský Brod win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 13

VenueStadion U Cervenych domku

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hodonín

Uherský Brod

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín13+317

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hodonín winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
62% The market58%
Us62%
Market58%

We make Hodonín a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hodonín v Uherský Brod2.26 – 1.16
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 17 v 1810 v 9
The market · Hodonín win58% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:49
Our probability · Hodonín win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hodonín win62%58%+4
Draw19%22%−3
Uherský Brod win19%20%−1
Over 2.5 goals66%60%+6
Both teams to score61%58%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%81%+4
Over 3.5 goals44%40%+4
Hodonín or draw81%80%+1
Hodonín clean sheet32%––
Uherský Brod clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.5 4.0 2.3 1 7.6 8.5 5.0 2 8.3 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 6.2 7.0 4.0 4 3.5 4.0 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hodonín down, Uherský Brod across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.83
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsHOD 5–2 UHE · UHE 2–2 HOD · HOD 2–0 UHE · UHE 1–2 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept

HODONÍN

LWWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

UHERSKÝ BROD

LLWDLW1–3 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II13+1729
2Uničov13+1329
3Zbrojovka Brno II13+1027
4Frýdek-Místek13+724
5Hranice13+723
6Sigma Olomouc II13+622
7Slovácko II13+618
8Unie Hlubina13+218
9Uherský Brod13018
10Hodonín13+317
11Vítkovice13−216
12Zlín II13−615
13Karviná II13−414
14Vrchovina13−1514
15Havířov13−911
16Blansko13−1111
17Vsetín13−1610
18Polanka nad Odrou13−89

The competition's standings before kick-off.