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Hodonín v Frýdek-Místek

Hodonín

3–0Full time

Frýdek-Místek

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion U Cervenych domku

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Hodonín 3–0 Frýdek-Místek HODONÍN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hodonín win~~45%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.460

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.536

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hodonín win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Hodonín 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
3′KICK-OFF Hodonín v Frýdek-Místek
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hodonín 1–0 Frýdek-Místek
25′T. Jager scores for Hodonín on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Hodonín win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Frýdek-Místek
45′We said Hodonín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Frýdek-Místek
45′HALF-TIME Hodonín 1–0 Frýdek-Místek
50′PENALTY MISSED · 50' Hodonín
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Hodonín 2–0 Frýdek-Místek
50′SECOND HALF Hodonín 2–0 Frýdek-Místek
53′A goal for Hodonín on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Hodonín win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hodonín 3–0 Frýdek-Místek
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Frýdek-Místek · On: T. Kohut · Off: M. Opeyemi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Frýdek-Místek · On: M. Guzik · Off: D. Bialek
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Frýdek-Místek
73′🟨 YELLOW · 67' K. Lasak · Frýdek-Místek
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Frýdek-Místek · On: D. Dluhos · Off: T. Hykel
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hodonín
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hodonín · On: P. Sehnal · Off: D. Jambor
84′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hodonín
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Frýdek-Místek · On: F. Volny · Off: D. Kedron
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Hodonín · On: V. Perina · Off: T. Jager
FTFULL TIME Hodonín 3–0 Frýdek-Místek
FTHodonín 3–0 Frýdek-Místek · Hodonín win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hodonín win45%

Draw25%

Frýdek-Místek win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadion U Cervenych domku

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hodonín

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Chropovsky

2 P. Durek

6 A. Koci

8 L. Pernica

10 T. Jager

11 A. Dunda

14 P. Bohun

16 D. Jambor

17 F. Grabl

19 J. Kalabiska

25 M. Necas

Coach · Pavol Svantner

Substitutes

3 · P. Dressler

4 · T. Vincour

12 · M. Novotny

15 · V. Perina

18 · P. Sehnal

22 · M. Lamacek

1 · T. Odraska

Frýdek-Místek

Formation not confirmed

29 K. Lasak

4 J. Massaniec

5 M. Velner

6 S. Charles

8 D. Kedron

10 J. Heller

12 J. Meca

15 D. Bialek

18 M. Opeyemi

19 T. Hykel

20 A. Gorcica

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Skotnica

2 · F. Volny

3 · F. Sami

9 · D. Dluhos

11 · T. Kohut

16 · M. Guzik

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hodonín

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Chropovsky

2 P. Durek

6 A. Koci

8 L. Pernica

10 T. Jager

11 A. Dunda

14 P. Bohun

16 D. Jambor

17 F. Grabl

19 J. Kalabiska

25 M. Necas

Coach · Pavol Svantner

Substitutes

3 · P. Dressler

4 · T. Vincour

12 · M. Novotny

15 · V. Perina

18 · P. Sehnal

22 · M. Lamacek

1 · T. Odraska

Frýdek-Místek

Formation not confirmed

29 K. Lasak

4 J. Massaniec

5 M. Velner

6 S. Charles

8 D. Kedron

10 J. Heller

12 J. Meca

15 D. Bialek

18 M. Opeyemi

19 T. Hykel

20 A. Gorcica

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Skotnica

2 · F. Volny

3 · F. Sami

9 · D. Dluhos

11 · T. Kohut

16 · M. Guzik

Our number · hodonín winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Hodonín a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hodonín win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hodonín win	45%	40%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Frýdek-Místek win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Hodonín or draw	70%	67%	+3
Hodonín clean sheet	30%	–	–
Frýdek-Místek clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 7.7 4.7 1 9.7 11.7 7.1 3.0 2 7.5 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.9 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hodonín down, Frýdek-Místek across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,610 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hodonín at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Frýdek-Místek away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Hodonín, 1.23 for Frýdek-Místek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FRY 1–1 HOD · HOD 2–1 FRY · HOD 1–2 FRY · FRY 3–0 HOD

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

HODONÍN

WLLWWW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK

WDWDLW3–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
3	Uničov	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	11	+9	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Vítkovice	11	+3	16
8	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
9	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
10	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
11	Zlín II	11	−3	15
12	Hodonín	11	+1	14
13	Vrchovina	11	−7	14
14	Karviná II	11	−6	11
15	Vsetín	11	−13	10
16	Blansko	11	−12	8
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5