Havířov v Sigma Olomouc II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Havířov 3–0 Sigma Olomouc II SIGMA OLOMOUC II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sigma Olomouc II win~~64%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.159

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.038

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sigma Olomouc II win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sigma Olomouc II was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
1′KICK-OFF Havířov v Sigma Olomouc II
3′Much as we predicted: Sigma Olomouc II was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Sigma Olomouc II
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Havířov 1–0 Sigma Olomouc II
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Havířov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Sigma Olomouc II
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Havířov
45′HALF-TIME Havířov 1–0 Sigma Olomouc II
46′SECOND HALF Havířov 1–0 Sigma Olomouc II
49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Sigma Olomouc II
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Havířov 2–0 Sigma Olomouc II
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Havířov 3–0 Sigma Olomouc II
63′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sigma Olomouc II · On: N. Jadrnicek · Off: D. Drabek
63′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sigma Olomouc II · On: A. Proniuk · Off: V. Zahradnicek
64′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sigma Olomouc II · On: M. Amasi · Off: S. Noumbissie
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Sigma Olomouc II
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Sigma Olomouc II
81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Havířov · On: P. Zdunek · Off: L. Gajdosik Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Aibe · Sigma Olomouc II
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Havířov
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sigma Olomouc II
FTFULL TIME Havířov 3–0 Sigma Olomouc II
FTHavířov 3–0 Sigma Olomouc II · Sigma Olomouc II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Havířov win16%

Draw21%

Sigma Olomouc II win64%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:15

VenueMestsky fotbalovy areal Havirov

Line-ups

Havířov

Sigma Olomouc II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Havířov

Sigma Olomouc II

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
18	Havířov	11	−14	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Havířov

Formation not confirmed

2 V. Wala

6 D. Chaban

10 L. Gajdosik

13 Cadu

15 S. Pinkas

16 M. Hafera

17 J. Teply

18 P. Srek

23 M. Nemec

27 O. Moucka

28 V. Hajnos

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Matej

5 · D. Macej

7 · E. Puchel

9 · S. Hrabec

22 · P. Zdunek

26 · L. Matusinsky

32 · D. Kabat

Sigma Olomouc II

Formation not confirmed

3 I. Brzyski

11 D. Drabek

15 V. Kristal

21 P. Zifcak

22 V. Zahradnicek

27 M. Matocha

31 A. Pavlesic

37 F. Orisek

43 S. Noumbissie

55 S. Aibe

66 P. Siegl

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · N. Jadrnicek

7 · S. Dikos

8 · A. Urica

10 · A. Proniuk

18 · O. Hapal

33 · R. Ctvrtlik

77 · M. Amasi

Our number · sigma olomouc ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

64% The market59%

Us64%

~~Market~~59%

We make Sigma Olomouc II a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sigma olomouc ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havířov win	16%	20%	−4
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Sigma Olomouc II win	64%	59%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	61%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−8
Havířov or draw	36%	41%	−5
Havířov clean sheet	14%	–	–
Sigma Olomouc II clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 11.4 11.3 7.6 3.9 1 5.0 9.7 9.4 6.3 3.2 2 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havířov down, Sigma Olomouc II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,614 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Havířov at home: 0.60 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Sigma Olomouc II away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Havířov, 2.02 for Sigma Olomouc II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL

HAVÍŘOV

LLDDLD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

SIGMA OLOMOUC II

LLDWLW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uničov	12	+12	26
2	Líšeň II	11	+16	25
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	+8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	12	+6	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	+7	19
6	Hranice	11	+5	17
7	Hodonín	12	+4	17
8	Vítkovice	12	−1	16
9	Unie Hlubina	11	+4	15
10	Slovácko II	11	+4	15
11	Uherský Brod	11	0	15
12	Zlín II	11	−3	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	12	−11	14
15	Blansko	12	−10	11
16	Vsetín	12	−15	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	−10	6
18	Havířov	11	−14	5