Havířov v Polanka nad Odrou prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Havířov 3–1 Polanka nad Odrou HAVÍŘOV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Havířov win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Havířov win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Havířov was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Havířov v Polanka nad Odrou
13′A goal for Havířov on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Havířov 1–0 Polanka nad Odrou
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Havířov win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
14′We published Havířov at 44%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Havířov win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Havířov
39′We published Havířov at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
42′Havířov score on 42′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Havířov 2–0 Polanka nad Odrou
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Havířov win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
43′We published Havířov at 44%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Havířov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Polanka nad Odrou
45′HALF-TIME Havířov 2–0 Polanka nad Odrou
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Polanka nad Odrou
46′SECOND HALF Havířov 2–0 Polanka nad Odrou
47′We published Havířov at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
50′Havířov find the net on 49′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Havířov 3–0 Polanka nad Odrou
58′We published Havířov at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Havířov · On: D. Smekal · Off: S. Pinkas
68′A goal for Polanka nad Odrou on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Polanka nad Odrou · On: A. Bharti · Off: G. Elekana
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Polanka nad Odrou · On: S. Pazout · Off: J. Mikulenka
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Havířov 3–1 Polanka nad Odrou
69′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Polanka nad Odrou · On: L. Krejci · Off: J. Blatny
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Havířov · On: M. Szewieczek · Off: V. Hajnos
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Havířov · On: D. Macej · Off: J. Teply
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polanka nad Odrou · On: M. Kysely · Off: A. Sochor
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polanka nad Odrou · On: M. Ayornor · Off: L. Levcik
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Havířov · On: S. Hrabec · Off: O. Moucka
FTFULL TIME Havířov 3–1 Polanka nad Odrou
FTHavířov 3–1 Polanka nad Odrou · Havířov win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Havířov are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Havířov 44%, draw 27%, Polanka nad Odrou 29%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Havířov v Polanka nad OdrouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Havířov win44%

Draw27%

Polanka nad Odrou win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueMestsky fotbalovy areal Havirov

Line-ups

Havířov

Polanka nad Odrou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Havířov

Polanka nad Odrou

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Havířov

Formation not confirmed

2 V. Wala

6 D. Chaban

13 Cadu

15 S. Pinkas

16 M. Hafera

17 J. Teply

18 P. Srek

23 M. Nemec

26 L. Matusinsky

27 O. Moucka

28 V. Hajnos

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Matej

5 · D. Macej

9 · S. Hrabec

10 · L. Gajdosik

21 · M. Szewieczek

22 · P. Zdunek

29 · D. Smekal

Polanka nad Odrou

Formation not confirmed

7 G. Elekana

8 A. Roncka

10 J. Blatny

11 L. Levcik

13 K. Michlik

17 D. Sikora

26 M. Andrle

27 J. Mikulenka

28 A. Sochor

44 R. Coufal

96 O. Kolenko

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Bharti

6 · S. Pazout

12 · M. Kysely

18 · A. Bitta

19 · F. Stanek

20 · M. Ayornor

37 · L. Krejci

Our number · havířov winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Havířov a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Havířov v Polanka nad Odrou~~1.39 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~18 v 17

~~The market · Havířov win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Havířov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havířov win	44%	48%	−4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Polanka nad Odrou win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	56%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
Havířov or draw	71%	73%	−2
Havířov clean sheet	35%	–	–
Polanka nad Odrou clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 9.2 4.9 1 12.0 12.4 6.6 2.4 2 8.2 8.6 4.6 3 3.9 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havířov down, Polanka nad Odrou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,624 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 113 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Havířov at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Polanka nad Odrou away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Havířov, 1.07 for Polanka nad Odrou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POL 2–1 HAV · HAV 2–3 POL · POL 0–0 HAV · HAV 1–2 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

HAVÍŘOV

LDDLDW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0

POLANKA NAD ODROU

LLDWLW1–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	13	+17	29
2	Uničov	12	+12	26
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	12	+8	24
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	+7	24
5	Hranice	13	+7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	12	+4	19
7	Slovácko II	13	+6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	+2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	0	18
10	Hodonín	12	+4	17
11	Vítkovice	13	−2	16
12	Zlín II	12	−4	15
13	Karviná II	12	−2	14
14	Vrchovina	13	−15	14
15	Blansko	13	−11	11
16	Vsetín	13	−16	10
17	Polanka nad Odrou	12	−6	9
18	Havířov	12	−11	8