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Frýdek-Místek v Slovácko II

Frýdek-Místek
2–1Full time
Slovácko II

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 17 OCT · Stadion Stovky

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
Frýdek-Místek 2–1 Slovácko II FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Frýdek-Místek win50%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.380
The market’s Brier score0.426

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Frýdek-Místek win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Frýdek-Místek was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Frýdek-Místek v Slovácko II
  4. 5′Frýdek-Místek find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Frýdek-Místek 1–0 Slovácko II
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
  7. 6′We published Frýdek-Místek at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
  8. 8′Frýdek-Místek ahead on 5′ through M. Opeyemi. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–9
  9. 9′We published Frýdek-Místek at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Frýdek-Místek 1–0 Slovácko II
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Frýdek-Místek 1–0 Slovácko II
  13. 57′We published Frýdek-Místek at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  14. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  15. 59′A goal for Slovácko II on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–48–20
  16. 59′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–48–20
  17. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Frýdek-Místek 1–1 Slovácko II
  18. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 32% now
  19. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Frýdek-Místek win 32%)
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  21. 64′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
  22. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Slovácko II · On: A. Markov · Off: M. Cicha
  23. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Frýdek-Místek · On: J. Meca · Off: S. Charles
  24. 71′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
  25. 75′S. Olayiwola scores for Slovácko II on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–67–13
  26. 75′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–67–13
  27. 75′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 20–67–13
  28. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  29. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Slovácko II
  30. 76′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–12
  31. 81′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–9
  32. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Frýdek-Místek
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Slovácko II · On: R. Horny · Off: T. Tichanek
  34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  35. 85′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  36. 91′We said Frýdek-Místek at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  37. 93′Frýdek-Místek score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  38. 93′We published Frýdek-Místek at 50%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Frýdek-Místek 2–1 Slovácko II
  40. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Frýdek-Místek win: 50% at kick-off, 98% now
  41. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Frýdek-Místek win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  42. 94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  43. FTFULL TIME Frýdek-Místek 2–1 Slovácko II
  44. FTFrýdek-Místek 2–1 Slovácko II · Frýdek-Místek win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frýdek-Místek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frýdek-Místek 50%, draw 25%, Slovácko II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Frýdek-Místek v Slovácko IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Frýdek-Místek win50%
Draw25%
Slovácko II win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 12

VenueStadion Stovky

Line-ups

Frýdek-Místek

Slovácko II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frýdek-Místek

Slovácko II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Frýdek-Místek12+621
7Slovácko II12+718

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Frýdek-Místek

Formation not confirmed

3 F. Sami

4 J. Massaniec

5 M. Velner

6 S. Charles

8 D. Kedron

10 J. Heller

15 D. Bialek

18 M. Opeyemi

19 T. Hykel

20 A. Gorcica

29 K. Lasak

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Martinak

7 · D. Konecny

9 · D. Dluhos

11 · T. Kohut

12 · J. Meca

14 · D. Mladek

16 · M. Guzik

Slovácko II

Formation not confirmed

31 A. Urban

7 L. Novotny

11 M. Uhrovic

14 S. Olayiwola

15 A. Alabi

17 M. Jilek

18 M. Cicha

19 T. Tichanek

20 Z. Pereski

21 J. Snopek

23 O. Ceesay

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · T. Frystak

10 · A. Markov

22 · M. Holek

24 · R. Horny

30 · J. Hastik

99 · L. Bernatik

Our number · frýdek-místek winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market47%
Us50%
Market47%

We make Frýdek-Místek a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Frýdek-Místek v Slovácko II1.63 – 1.09
Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 21 v 185 v 7
The market · Frýdek-Místek win47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:50
Our probability · Frýdek-Místek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Frýdek-Místek win50%47%+3
Draw25%26%−1
Slovácko II win26%27%−1
Over 2.5 goals51%55%−4
Both teams to score53%58%−5
Over 1.5 goals75%76%−1
Over 3.5 goals29%34%−5
Frýdek-Místek or draw74%73%+1
Frýdek-Místek clean sheet34%––
Slovácko II clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.9 7.3 4.0 1 10.8 11.6 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 9.3 5.1 3 4.7 5.1 2.8 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Frýdek-Místek down, Slovácko II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsSLO 2–2 FRY · FRY 2–2 SLO · FRY 1–0 SLO · SLO 1–0 FRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 5 Sept

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK

DWDLWL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 0–3

SLOVÁCKO II

LWDLLW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Líšeň II12+1626
2Uničov12+1226
3Zbrojovka Brno II12+824
4Hranice13+723
5Frýdek-Místek12+621
6Sigma Olomouc II12+419
7Slovácko II12+718
8Hodonín12+417
9Vítkovice13−216
10Unie Hlubina12+115
11Uherský Brod12−415
12Zlín II12−415
13Karviná II12−214
14Vrchovina12−1114
15Blansko12−1011
16Vsetín12−1510
17Polanka nad Odrou12−69
18Havířov12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.