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Blansko v Frýdek-Místek

Blansko

0–3Full time

Frýdek-Místek

3. liga - MSFL · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion na Udolni

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Blansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frýdek-Místek win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frýdek-Místek win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Frýdek-Místek 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 26–22–52
1′KICK-OFF Blansko v Frýdek-Místek
4′Frýdek-Místek score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–15–74
4′We said Frýdek-Místek at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 11–15–74
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Blansko 0–1 Frýdek-Místek
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Frýdek-Místek win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
21′Frýdek-Místek find the net on 21′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–91
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Blansko 0–2 Frýdek-Místek
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Frýdek-Místek win: 52% at kick-off, 91% now
22′We said Frýdek-Místek at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 3–7–91
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Frýdek-Místek
28′A goal for Frýdek-Místek on 28′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
28′We said Frýdek-Místek at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Blansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Frýdek-Místek win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Blansko
45′HALF-TIME Blansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek
46′SECOND HALF Blansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Blansko · On: M. Toczyski · Off: O. Hublik
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Blansko · On: M. Zikl · Off: A. Buneta
62′We said Frýdek-Místek at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Blansko
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Frýdek-Místek · On: M. Guzik · Off: J. Heller
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Blansko · On: S. Kolarik · Off: F. Kocurek
73′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Frýdek-Místek · On: D. Konecny · Off: S. Charles
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Frýdek-Místek · On: J. Meca · Off: T. Hykel
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Frýdek-Místek · On: D. Dluhos · Off: D. Kedron
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Frýdek-Místek · On: D. Mladek · Off: M. Opeyemi
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Blansko
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Blansko · On: E. Moll · Off: A. Plichta
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Blansko · On: I. Kostrunek · Off: O. Stecha
FTFULL TIME Blansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek
FTBlansko 0–3 Frýdek-Místek · Frýdek-Místek win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frýdek-Místek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blansko 26%, draw 22%, Frýdek-Místek 52%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Blansko v Frýdek-MístekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Blansko win26%

Draw22%

Frýdek-Místek win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMSFL · matchday 13

VenueStadion na Udolni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blansko

Frýdek-Místek

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - MSFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	+7	24
16	Blansko	13	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frýdek-místek winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make Frýdek-Místek a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Blansko v Frýdek-Místek~~1.30 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 24~~16 v 4

~~The market · Frýdek-Místek win~~51% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Frýdek-Místek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Blansko win	26%	24%	+2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Frýdek-Místek win	52%	51%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Blansko or draw	48%	49%	−1
Blansko clean sheet	15%	–	–
Frýdek-Místek clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 7.8 7.4 4.8 2.4 1 5.3 9.8 9.3 6.0 3.0 2 3.4 6.3 6.0 3.9 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Blansko down, Frýdek-Místek across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 3. liga - MSFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - MSFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Blansko at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Frýdek-Místek away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Blansko, 1.94 for Frýdek-Místek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FRY 2–0 BLA · BLA 1–2 FRY · BLA 1–1 FRY · FRY 1–1 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - MSFL this season · since 12 Sept

BLANSKO

DWLDWL0–0 · 5–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK

WDLWLW3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Líšeň II	13	+17	29
2	Uničov	13	+13	29
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	13	+10	27
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	+7	24
5	Hranice	13	+7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	+6	22
7	Slovácko II	13	+6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	+2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	0	18
10	Hodonín	13	+3	17
11	Vítkovice	13	−2	16
12	Zlín II	13	−6	15
13	Karviná II	13	−4	14
14	Vrchovina	13	−15	14
15	Havířov	13	−9	11
16	Blansko	13	−11	11
17	Vsetín	13	−16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	−8	9