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Velké Hamry v Teplice II

Velké Hamry

2–0Full time

Teplice II

3. liga - CFL B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Velke Hamry

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Velké Hamry 2–0 Teplice II TEPLICE II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Teplice II win~~42%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.682

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Teplice II win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Teplice II 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 34–24–43
1′KICK-OFF Velké Hamry v Teplice II
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Velké Hamry 1–0 Teplice II
45′HALF-TIME Velké Hamry 1–0 Teplice II
47′SECOND HALF Velké Hamry 1–0 Teplice II
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Velké Hamry 2–0 Teplice II
68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Teplice II · On: P. Voracek · Off: L. Cervenka Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Velké Hamry · On: S. Kocka · Off: P. Balaz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Teplice II · On: M. Kulhanek · Off: L. Holba
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Teplice II
78′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Teplice II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Teplice II
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Teplice II
FTFULL TIME Velké Hamry 2–0 Teplice II
FTVelké Hamry 2–0 Teplice II · Teplice II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Velké Hamry win33%

Draw24%

Teplice II win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stadion Velke Hamry

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Velké Hamry

Formation not confirmed

18 D. Mecir

77 K. Knejzlik

48 O. Stepanek

46 J. Jindrisek

6 P. Balaz

5 J. .. Sidlo

26 P. Krejcik

96 T. Bulir

22 S. Novotny

93 O. Etemike

7 M. Kubin

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · O. Valenta

10 · S. Fofana

4 · W. Masternak

88 · S. Kocka

8 · M. Leshchuk

75 · O. Zawanowski

1 · L. Dedek

Teplice II

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Nemecek

13 D. Taraduda

20 A. Garzha

27 M. Naprstek

32 S. Pech

39 T. Vondrasek

47 L. Cervenka

52 L. Holba

54 S. Anusic

55 M. Vachousek

60 M. Kriz

Coach · Admir Ljevakovic

Substitutes

38 · J. Port

43 · P. Voracek

48 · M. Kulhanek

49 · O. Klimpl

57 · Eduardo Ferraz

33 · R. Zich

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Velké Hamry

Formation not confirmed

18 D. Mecir

77 K. Knejzlik

48 O. Stepanek

46 J. Jindrisek

6 P. Balaz

5 J. .. Sidlo

26 P. Krejcik

96 T. Bulir

22 S. Novotny

93 O. Etemike

7 M. Kubin

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · O. Valenta

10 · S. Fofana

4 · W. Masternak

88 · S. Kocka

8 · M. Leshchuk

75 · O. Zawanowski

1 · L. Dedek

Teplice II

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Nemecek

13 D. Taraduda

20 A. Garzha

27 M. Naprstek

32 S. Pech

39 T. Vondrasek

47 L. Cervenka

52 L. Holba

54 S. Anusic

55 M. Vachousek

60 M. Kriz

Coach · Admir Ljevakovic

Substitutes

38 · J. Port

43 · P. Voracek

48 · M. Kulhanek

49 · O. Klimpl

57 · Eduardo Ferraz

33 · R. Zich

Our number · teplice ii winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market51%

Us42%

~~Market~~51%

We make Teplice II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · teplice ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velké Hamry win	33%	25%	+8
Draw	24%	24%	0
Teplice II win	42%	51%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Velké Hamry or draw	58%	49%	+8
Velké Hamry clean sheet	20%	–	–
Teplice II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 7.2 6.2 3.4 1 6.3 11.0 8.7 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 7.6 6.2 3.4 3 2.3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velké Hamry down, Teplice II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velké Hamry at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Teplice II away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Velké Hamry, 1.65 for Teplice II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TEP 2–1 VEL · VEL 0–2 TEP

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B

VELKÉ HAMRY

LLDLWL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 1–2

TEPLICE II

WDLWLL4–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Zápy	9	+13	21
2	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
3	Mladá Boleslav II	9	+14	17
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	8	+7	15
5	Pardubice II	8	+8	14
6	Teplice II	9	0	13
7	Baník Souš	8	+7	12
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
9	Čáslav	8	−6	11
10	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10
11	Horní Ředice	7	−6	9
12	Neratovice-Byškovice	9	−10	9
13	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8
14	Chrudim	9	−8	7
15	Slovan Liberec II	8	−11	5
16	Velké Hamry	9	−16	4