Varnsdorf v Hradec Králové II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Varnsdorf 2–1 Hradec Králové II VARNSDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varnsdorf win~~40%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varnsdorf win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Varnsdorf was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
3′Much as we predicted: Varnsdorf was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–35
17′10′ and it is 0–1: M. Halama on the scoresheet for Hradec Králové II. 0–1 · 17–21–61
20′10′ and it is 0–1: M. Halama on the scoresheet for Hradec Králové II. 0–1 · 17–22–62
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Varnsdorf win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Varnsdorf win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hradec Králové II win 35%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Varnsdorf win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Hradec Králové II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Varnsdorf win 17%)
35′We said Varnsdorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
36′We said Varnsdorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Varnsdorf 1–1 Hradec Králové II · M. Halama
42′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Varnsdorf · On: A. Kovbasa · Off: O. Sirenko
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Varnsdorf 1–1 Hradec Králové II
45′HALF-TIME Varnsdorf 1–1 Hradec Králové II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Varnsdorf win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Hradec Králové II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Varnsdorf win 14%)
45′SECOND HALF Varnsdorf 1–1 Hradec Králové II
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Varnsdorf 1–1 Hradec Králové II · A. Kovbasa
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hradec Králové II · On: P. Holubec · Off: M. Halama Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hradec Králové II · On: J. Zeman · Off: S. Ponikelsky
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hradec Králové II · On: M. Hampl · Off: L. Vanek
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Varnsdorf 2–1 Hradec Králové II · A. Kovbasa
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Varnsdorf 2–1 Hradec Králové II
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Varnsdorf · On: D. Berezka · Off: M. Lopez
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Varnsdorf
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hradec Králové II · On: O. Machala · Off: T. Fejgl
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Hradec Králové II
FTFULL TIME Varnsdorf 2–1 Hradec Králové II
FTVarnsdorf 2–1 Hradec Králové II · Varnsdorf win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Varnsdorf win40%

Draw24%

Hradec Králové II win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueMestsky stadion v Kotline

Line-ups

Varnsdorf

Hradec Králové II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Varnsdorf

Hradec Králové II

4Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
11	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Varnsdorf

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Roze

2 J. Sokol

3 J. Hora

4 I. Tymoshenko

6 L. Jandac

11 O. Sirenko

12 J. Emmer

15 S. Boryshpolets

16 T. Ahile

17 N. Gavrylyuk

24 M. Lopez

Coach · Pavlo Rudnytskyy

Substitutes

5 · Y. Pinchuk

9 · D. Berezka

13 · J. Hudak

18 · D. Grafek

20 · A. Kovbasa

22 · N. Pechenyi

33 · D. Shnurko

Hradec Králové II

Formation not confirmed

5 V. Zentrich

8 S. Ponikelsky

9 J. Mokrejs

11 L. Vanek

15 M. Halama

17 A. Hronek

18 M. Syrovatka

20 M. Vagner

24 J. Hradecky

25 T. Fejgl

27 J. Chvatal

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · O. Svoboda

6 · T. Pavlik

10 · T. Meduna

13 · J. Zeman

14 · P. Zalud

19 · O. Machala

21 · M. Hampl

Our number · varnsdorf winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market56%

Us40%

~~Market~~56%

We make Varnsdorf a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · varnsdorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varnsdorf win	40%	56%	−15
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Hradec Králové II win	35%	21%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−1
Varnsdorf or draw	65%	79%	−14
Varnsdorf clean sheet	23%	–	–
Hradec Králové II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 6.5 5.1 2.5 1 7.0 11.0 7.9 3.9 2 5.8 8.4 6.2 3.1 3 3.2 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varnsdorf down, Hradec Králové II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,337 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varnsdorf at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hradec Králové II away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Varnsdorf, 1.49 for Hradec Králové II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAR 5–0 HRA · HRA 3–2 VAR

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B

VARNSDORF

WWDLDD2–1 · 3–1 · 4–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

HRADEC KRÁLOVÉ II

LDDLWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Zápy	9	+13	21
2	Mladá Boleslav II	10	+15	20
3	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	9	+9	18
5	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
6	Teplice II	10	−2	13
7	Baník Souš	9	+6	12
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
9	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
10	Čáslav	8	−6	11
11	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10
12	Chrudim	10	−6	10
13	Horní Ředice	8	−8	9
14	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5