Teplice II v Sokol Zápy prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Teplice II 1–2 Sokol Zápy SOKOL ZÁPY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sokol Zápy win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sokol Zápy win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sokol Zápy was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 24–23–53
1′KICK-OFF Teplice II v Sokol Zápy
4′Sokol Zápy find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–14–76
4′We published Sokol Zápy at 53%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 10–14–76
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Teplice II 0–1 Sokol Zápy
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Sokol Zápy win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
14′A goal for Sokol Zápy on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–6–91
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Teplice II 0–2 Sokol Zápy
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Sokol Zápy win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
15′We published Sokol Zápy at 53%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 3–6–91
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sokol Zápy win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Teplice II 0–2 Sokol Zápy
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
46′SECOND HALF Teplice II 0–2 Sokol Zápy
49′We published Sokol Zápy at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Teplice II · On: S. Anusic · Off: P. Voracek
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Teplice II
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Teplice II · On: J. Liska · Off: J. Port
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Teplice II · On: M. Kulhanek · Off: S. Schonbauer
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sokol Zápy · On: J. Steiner · Off: D. Vesely
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sokol Zápy
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sokol Zápy · On: J. Tesar · Off: U. Ekpai
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sokol Zápy · On: J. Vanek · Off: P. Vandas
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Teplice II · On: J. Hefner · Off: M. Vachousek
82′We published Sokol Zápy at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Teplice II · On: L. Holba · Off: A. Garzha
87′Teplice II score on 86′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Teplice II 1–2 Sokol Zápy
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sokol Zápy · On: D. Farkas · Off: O. Petrak Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sokol Zápy · On: J. Lopatar · Off: T. Kuchar
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sokol Zápy
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Sokol Zápy
FTFULL TIME Teplice II 1–2 Sokol Zápy
FTTeplice II 1–2 Sokol Zápy · Sokol Zápy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sokol Zápy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Teplice II 24%, draw 23%, Sokol Zápy 53%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Teplice II v Sokol ZápyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Teplice II win24%

Draw23%

Sokol Zápy win53%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

VenueFootball pitch Na Stinadlech - Artificial Grass

Line-ups

Teplice II

Sokol Zápy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Teplice II

Sokol Zápy

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sokol Zápy	10	+12	21
9	Teplice II	10	−2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Teplice II

Formation not confirmed

13 D. Taraduda

20 A. Garzha

27 M. Naprstek

32 S. Pech

33 R. Zich

38 J. Port

39 T. Vondrasek

43 P. Voracek

55 M. Vachousek

58 S. Schonbauer

60 M. Kriz

Coach · Admir Ljevakovic

Substitutes

31 · O. Hadrava

44 · J. Liska

47 · J. Hefner

48 · M. Kulhanek

52 · L. Holba

54 · S. Anusic

57 · Eduardo Ferraz

Sokol Zápy

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rehak

2 B. Prochazka

5 D. Stropek

6 J. Sulc

9 T. Kuchar

11 D. Vesely

12 U. Ekpai

14 O. Petrak

18 M. Petrlak

19 P. Vandas

20 O. Kocourek

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · J. Tesar

10 · J. Vanek

13 · J. Steiner

16 · D. Farkas

23 · J. Lopatar

28 · K. Durov

Our number · sokol zápy winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Sokol Zápy a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Teplice II v Sokol Zápy~~1.23 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 21~~9 v 3

~~The market · Sokol Zápy win~~58% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sokol Zápy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teplice II win	24%	19%	+5
Draw	23%	23%	0
Sokol Zápy win	53%	58%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Teplice II or draw	47%	42%	+5
Teplice II clean sheet	15%	–	–
Sokol Zápy clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.9 8.1 7.9 5.0 2.5 1 5.1 10.3 9.4 6.0 2.9 2 3.3 6.1 5.7 3.7 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teplice II down, Sokol Zápy across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,344 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teplice II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sokol Zápy away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Teplice II, 1.91 for Sokol Zápy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SOK 1–2 TEP · TEP 1–1 SOK · SOK 1–1 TEP · TEP 0–2 SOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept

TEPLICE II

DLWLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–2

SOKOL ZÁPY

DWWWDL4–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladá Boleslav II	11	+17	23
2	Jablonec II	10	+15	21
3	Sokol Zápy	10	+12	21
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	10	+9	19
5	Baník Souš	11	+7	16
6	Varnsdorf	10	0	15
7	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
8	Čáslav	9	−5	14
9	Teplice II	10	−2	13
10	Chrudim	11	−5	13
11	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
12	Hradec Králové II	10	−2	10
13	Horní Ředice	9	−9	9
14	Sokol Brozany	11	−8	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5